The Memphis Grizzlies visit the Los Angeles Lakers in what should be a fun Friday night showdown.
The pregame narrative: I expect a healthy helping of points as Memphis visits Los Angeles. I'm looking beyond the top stars and looking for a pair of role players to step up with stellar performances.
Check out my Grizzlies vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Jan. 2, featuring prop bets on Jake LaRavia and Santi Aldama.
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Grizzlies vs. Lakers predictions
Parlay: Over 225.5 points | LaRavia over 10.5 points | Aldama over 14.5 points (+310)
Over 225. points (-385): Los Angeles has been one of the better overs teams in the NBA, and I expect both teams to clear this total.
The Lakers are 20-11 to the over this season, the second-best record in the league. They've gone over this total in 12 of their last 15 games.
Memphis, meanwhile, has been one of the better unders squads in the NBA. Still, the Grizzlies have been able to top this total in eight of their last nine outings.
What helps is that these are two offences that put points up in different ways. The Lakers are seventh in offensive rating (115.6), but they run at an average pace.
Memphis, meanwhile, isn't very efficient but is second in pace (104.3 possessions/game).
NBA SGP legs
LaRavia over 10.5 points (-104): This is a very fair line for somebody trending up like LaRavia.
The forward is only averaging 8.7 points per game, but that number is steadily rising.
- LaRavia has posted 10.2 PPG across his last six games.
- He has topped this total in four of his last six games.
Los Angeles battled Memphis earlier this season, and LaRavia had a solid 13-point showing.
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Rui Hachimura is out again for the Lakers, which means LaRavia should continue to see increased usage.
He's averaging 30.0 minutes in his last six games, which is up from his season-long average (25.5).
Aldama over 14.5 points (-110): Lastly, I'm taking the over on Aldama's points prop.
The Spanish power forward is averaging just a tick under this total on the season (14.3), but there are a couple of indicators that suggest he'll eclipse the mark tonight.
Firstly, Los Angeles hasn't done a great job of defending power forwards. They're ceding the ninth-most points per game to the position (23.6).
Secondly, his production is up in recent efforts. Aldama is averaging 17.9 points per game across his last 10 outings, eclipsing 20 points in four of those performances.
