The Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors begin the 2026 portion of their respective seasons on Friday night at Chase Center.
The pregame narrative: OKC shrugged off a 2-4 slump with three straight dominant wins to close out the calendar year. Now the Thunder are nearly double-digit road favourites against the Warriors tonight.
Check out my Thunder vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Jan. 2, featuring prop bets on Steph Curry and Chet Holmgren.
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Thunder vs. Warriors SGP
Parlay: Holmgren 30+ PRA | Curry 4+ threes | Thunder -4.5 (+300)
Holmgren 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-112): Golden State is a favourable matchup for opposing centres, and that's a good place to start.
Here's where the Warriors rank vs. centres this season, according to Fantasy Pros
- 14th in points/game
- 26th in rebounds/game
- 26th in assists/game
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Excluding one injury-shortened matchup against Golden State last fall — in which Holmgren exited in the first quarter with a hip injury — he has dominated in this matchup.
Holmgren is 4-0 vs. this PRA prop in four full games vs. the Warriors, averaging 25.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
Also, the Thunder will play without Isaiah Hartenstein tonight, which should create more opportunities for Holmgren.
The former No. 2 overall pick is 4-1 vs. this PRA prop in his past five games without Hartenstein.
NBA SGP legs
Curry 4+ threes (-265): The juice on this prop looks crazy at first, but it starts to make sense when you look at what Curry is still accomplishing in his age-37 season:
- NBA-highs in 3s per game (4.8) and 3-point attempts per game (12.1).
- Has 4+ threes in 18 of 25 games (72.0%).
Curry has averaged at least 4.4 made 3s in six straight seasons. The greatest shooter ever isn't slowing down just yet.
He's also 9-1 vs. this 3s milestone in his past 10 games against OKC.
The Thunder allow the fourth-highest opponent 3PT% (37.4), so Curry's continued success really isn't a surprise.
Thunder -4.5 (-230): I'm cutting tonight's spread in half, which should put the Thunder in a great spot to cash.
OKC is merely 17-17-0 ATS on the season, but the team is typically asked to cover much larger spreads than this. The Thunder have laid 10-plus points in 19 of their past 21 games.
A few recent losses to the San Antonio Spurs won't muddy my opinion of the defending champs. The Thunder still have the best net rating in the NBA (+14.2), and they own a +11.9 average point differential in 15 road games.
Thunder vs. Warriors predictions made at 11:45 a.m. on Jan. 2, 2026.
