The Buffalo Bills look to keep pace in the AFC East when they play the middling Houston Texans on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: The Bills are second in their division and are looking to stay within striking distance of the New England Patriots. The Texans' defence should keep them in this game while the offence is expected to struggle.
Check out my Bills vs. Texans picks for Nov. 20, featuring a prop bet on Buffalo running back James Cook.
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Bills vs. Texans picks
Best Bet: Under 43.5 points (-110)
I cannot trust the Texans' offence right now.
- C.J. Stroud is likely to miss this game, and Davis Mills has been less than impressive as a replacement. In the three games he's appeared in, Houston has scored 16 or fewer points twice.
- Even with Stroud, the offence was subpar. Overall, the Texans scored 22.0 points per game (12th most).
On the other side of the ball, the defence has been incredible. It ranks as the best scoring defence (16.3 points against/game) and total defence (277.1 yards against/game).
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Buffalo's offence is always capable of fireworks, but it's struggled against better defensive teams (e.g. Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots).
That gives me confidence that this will be a low-scoring contest between two tough defensive squads.
Even if the Bills break through, it's unlikely Houston will be able to keep pace.
Key stat: Unders are 6-3-1 for the Texans this season. That's the fourth-best unders record in the NFL.
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TNF prop prediction
Cook under 75.5 rushing yards (-106): Fading Cook this season hasn't worked out well, but this is a good chance to take his under in a tough matchup.
- The Texans allow the third fewest rushing yards per game (87.1) on 3.9 yards per carry.
- Starting running backs are 0-10 on this wager against Houston this season.
- Cook has finished well below this total in back-to-back games despite receiving a healthy workload of 29 total carries.
-> Fade James Cook vs. the Texans on TNF
If Buffalo is unsuccessful with the run in the early goings, the game plan would switch to more of an air raid approach.
That would limit Cook's touches, making this a tough mark to get past.
For those reasons, I'll fade the running back on Thursday Night Football.
Bills vs. Texans picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 11/18/2025.
