I've got three prop recommendations from Tuesday's six-game slate, headlined by a play on San Antonio Spurs guard De'Aaron Fox.
Today's NBA props narrative: Victor Wembanyama is out, meaning Fox will have to carry the offensive load against the Memphis Grizzlies. Elsewhere, Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija should stay hot despite a tough matchup against the Phoenix Suns.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 18, featuring a pick on Anfernee Simons.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 18
Best bet: Fox over 24.5 points (-130)
This is my "don't overthink it" play of the day.
Fox is an elite scorer with 30-point upside, going up against one of the worst defences in the league. Oh, and Stephon Castle is also sidelined with Wembanyama.
They have combined to average 43.5 points and 30.3 field-goal attempts per game. Replacing that production is impossible, but Fox can try his best.
-> Wager on tonight's six-game NBA slate
The second-year Spur has played five games so far and is averaging 22.0 points on solid 51.2% shooting. He's coming off a season-high 28 points against the Sacramento Kings, which also happened to be the first game Wembanyama missed.
Now, he faces a Grizzlies team allowing the most points (29.51) and threes (4.05) per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.
All signs point to another big night.
Key stat: Fox has taken 20-plus shots in back-to-back games, including eight 3s in both contests.
Best NBA picks
Avdija over 25.5 points (-110): Avdija currently sits third on the NBA's Most Improved Player odds board after a torrid start to the season.
- 2024-25: 16.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.9 APG, 47.6 FG%
- 2025-26: 26.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.9 APG, 48.9 FG%
The big man has been remarkably consistent, scoring at least 19 points in every game while going 8-5 against this line.
-> Bet on Avdija in Suns vs. Trail Blazers
Avdija's volume is way up from last year, and he's averaging a hefty 35.6 minutes in November.
The Suns have stifled power forwards all year, allowing the sixth-fewest PPG to the position, but Avdija has done damage in a few other tough matchups.
He scored 27 points against the Orlando Magic and 32 points against the New Orleans Pelicans. They allow the fewest and fourth-fewest PPG, respectively, to opposing PFs.
NBA player prop predictions
Simons 3+ threes (+115): Simons has been very hit-or-miss on his 3-point market this year, but this is a great matchup for him to go nuclear.
The Brooklyn Nets are allowing opponents to shoot 39.2% from deep. That's the third-worst mark in the NBA.
-> Check out Tuesday's NBA prop markets
Simons has always been a high-volume 3-point shooter, averaging north of 3.1 makes and 8.5 attempts in his last three seasons with the Trail Blazers.
Those numbers are down slightly with the Celtics (2.7 makes on 6.9 attempts), but he's still cashing in at a great clip (39.6%).
Simons has cleared this mark in four of his last six games.
NBA prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on Nov. 18, 2025.
