The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings meet for a Christmas Day NFC North showdown, with the former needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The pregame narrative: Detroit needs to win out and get some help to make the postseason. Minnesota is riding a three-game winning streak heading into this matchup and looks to play spoiler as 6.5-point home underdogs.
Check out my Lions vs. Vikings predictions, featuring Jared Goff.
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Lions vs. Vikings predictions
SGP: Lions -6.5 | Vikings under 19.5 points | Goff 225+ passing yards (+295)
Lions -6.5 (-107): J.J. McCarthy exited Week 16 with a hand injury and was listed as a non-participant during Monday's practice.
It doesn't seem like the QB will be ready to suit up with such a short turnaround.
I think the Lions can cover this number with or without "Nine" under centre, but they could really blow things open if it's Max Brosmer playing quarterback.
Brosmer threw for four interceptions in his NFL debut and has a 5.0 QBR. McCarthy's 33.9 QBR ranks 31st out of all qualified quarterbacks in the NFL.
Jared Goff and the Lions' offence have been explosive lately, despite what the win-loss record says.
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Detroit is averaging 32.0 PPG during its last five games, going 2-3. I think the defence should round into form against one of the worst QB rooms in the NFL.
Christmas Day NFL SGP picks
Vikings under 19.5 points (-112): This play is heavily correlated to backing the Lions ATS. I'm pretty confident Detroit will put up at least 25 points, meaning if it can hold Minnesota below this number, we should be fine.
The Vikings picked up an ugly 16-13 win over the New York Giants last week after scoring 30-plus on the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders.
Those are three of the bottom four defences by RBSDM.com's EPA per play.
Before that, the Vikings had gone under this mark in four straight games.
Detroit isn't great defensively by any means (ranking 20th in EPA per play), but the Lions do have an elite linebacking corps and an All-Pro pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson, who should give McCarthy or Brosmer trouble.
Goff 225+ passing yards (-167): Goff should be in MVP talks, but for better or worse, you have to win games and contend for conferences to get that recognition. So maybe next year.
He ranks third in passing yards (4,036) and second in passing TDs (32) while only throwing five INTs.
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Goff has smashed this number recently, with three straight starts of 300-plus yards, and he has cleared it in nine straight outings dating back to Oct. 12.
That includes a game against the Vikings when he threw for 287 yards on 37 attempts. He cleared this mark in both games against Minnesota last year, too.
Lions vs. Vikings predictions made at 2:36 p.m. ET on Dec. 23, 2025.
