The surging New England Patriots host the New York Jets to kick off Week 11 on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: New England earned an upset victory in Tampa Bay last week to extend its win streak to seven games. The Jets, meanwhile, have won back-to-back games after an 0-7 start — but they're not expected to build on that success in this AFC East matchup.
Check out my Jets vs. Patriots picks for Nov. 11, featuring a prop bet on New York tight end Mason Taylor.
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Jets vs. Patriots picks
Best Bet: Patriots over 27.5 points (+104)
Aaron Glenn is a defensive-minded coach, but that hasn't translated to much defensive success in his first year at the helm of the New York Jets.
- The Jets have allowed 26.8 PPG this season, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
- New York's opponents are 5-4 vs. a 27.5-point total, and one of the teams that went under finished with exactly 27 points.
- On the road, New York has allowed a combined 94 points in just three games.
The Jets rank 19th in yards allowed, so things probably shouldn't be quite this bad. But the team can't drum up a turnover to save its life.
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Through nine games, New York has just one turnover. Unsurprisingly, that's the lowest total in the NFL.
I doubt the Jets will add to that total against Drake Maye's Patriots, who've been humming for a while.
From Week 4 onward, Maye leads NFL quarterbacks in average depth of target (10.0 yards) while ranking third in completion rate (74.9%). That's a lethal combo.
Maye has rightfully shot up the MVP leaderboard and currently sits second behind Matthew Stafford. New England's second-year QB has 270+ yards and/or multiple TD passes in every game.
On a short week against a defence that has looked toothless on the road, look for the Pats to do their fair share of scoring in Foxborough.
Key stat: During its seven-game win streak, New England is averaging 29.3 PPG. The Pats have scored at least 23 points in each of those games.
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TNF prop prediction
Taylor over 33.5 receiving yards (-114): The Jets' aerial attack has been exceptionally weak this year, evidenced by their dead-last ranking in passing yards (143.8/game).
With Garrett Wilson ruled out due to a knee sprain, Taylor should be the best of a messy collection of options.
- The rookie tight end has 30 catches for 246 yards this season. Both of those totals rank second on the Jets behind Wilson.
- Taylor has more offensive snaps this season than any of New York's other receivers, running backs or tight ends.
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The Jets only threw the ball 11 times last week in a weird offensive game against the feeble Cleveland Browns. Taylor and Wilson were the only players to receive multiple targets.
Prior to that, Taylor had at least three catches and at least five targets in five of his previous six games. He averaged 36.2 receiving yards in those matchups.
As double-digit underdogs against New England, the Jets will likely have to throw a fair amount. Taylor should be a key cog in their offensive plans.
The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most receptions and yards to opposing tight ends this season.
Jets vs. Patriots picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET 11/11/2025.
