I'm backing a pair of divisional road underdogs to triumph in these NFL Week 11 upset picks.
The pregame narrative: Can the Cincinnati Bengals improve to 2-0 against the Pittsburgh Steelers with Joe Flacco under centre? I think so. Elsewhere, back the Chicago Bears to keep things rolling when they play the Vikings in Minnesota.
Check out my top NFL Week 11 upset picks for games on Nov. 16.
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NFL Week 11 upset picks
Best bet: Bears moneyline (+133)
It looks like Caleb Williams has finally found "it."
The second-year QB engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in consecutive games to put Chicago at 6-3, right in the mix for the divisional title.
- Week 9 @ CIN: 280 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 53 rushing yards
- Week 10 vs. NYG: 220 passing yards, 1 passing TD and 1 rushing TD, 63 rushing yards
The Bears have now won six of their last seven games while avearging 27.7 PPG.
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Williams and Chicago began its season by blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to Minnesota, but I expect them to exact some revenge.
J.J. McCarthy looks ordinary at best for the Vikings, with a 5-to-6 TD:INT ratio and a 26.7 QBR. That QBR would be the second-worst in football had he played enough snaps to qualify.
Both teams rank in the bottom third in defensive EPA per play in the last five weeks. This could be a shootout, and I have far more faith in Williams' offence.
Key stat: Chicago is 3-2 SU on the road and as an underdog this year.
NFL underdog predictions
Bengals moneyline (+210): I can't look myself in the mirror as a Steelers fan and tell myself this is a good football team.
One week, the defence allows 33 points in primetime to Joe Flacco in a shootout loss. Then, the defence figures it out, but Aaron Rodgers' offence falls completely flat on Sunday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers.
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Cincinnati has already beaten Pittsburgh, and has more of an indentity than whatever Mike Tomlin has put together.
The Bengals will put up a ton of points. That's a given. They're avearging 37.6 points and 454.3 yards with Flacco under centre.
Pittsburgh's offence can't keep up with that, and it's defence is allowing the fifth-most yards per game.
NFL upset picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 11/04/2025.
