The Pittsburgh Steelers, fresh off a potential season-saving win, host the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football to close out Week 15.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh went into Baltimore and beat the Ravens as 6-point underdogs last week to take control of the AFC North. The Steelers are favoured against a Dolphins team on a five-game winning streak, but they'll be without T.J. Watt, who underwent surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung.
Check out my Dolphins vs. Steelers picks for Dec. 13, featuring prop bets on Jaylen Wright and Kenneth Gainwell.
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Dolphins vs. Steelers picks
Best bet: Wright over 19.5 rushing yards (-118)
De'Von Achane is good to go after exiting last week's game with a rib injury. But I think there's a ton of value in backing Wright, who went off in Achane's absence, to clear this modest total.
The backup RB turned 24 carries into 107 yards and a score against the Jets. His longest rush was only 12 yards, making his 4.5 YPC mark all the more impressive.
Wright will probably need 5-6 carries to clear this line, which should be doable.
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Pittsburgh's run defence is terrible, and the squad is dealing with a litany of injuries on its defensive line.
Mike McDaniel should want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.
The Steelers rank 27th in RBDSM.com's defensive EPA per rush and have allowed three straight RB2s to blow past this line:
- Keaton Mitchell (Week 14): 76 yards
- Ray Davis (Week 13): 62 yards
- Kyle Monangai (Week 12): 48 yards
Achane should feast, but giving the bell cow a few breathers with his rib injury also seems wise.
Key stat: Wright is 5-2 against this line in his career when he receives more than five carries.
MNF moneyline prop bet
Gainwell over 22.5 receiving yards (-118): Gainwell has been in a true timeshare with fellow RB Jaylen Warren this season, with the snaps tipping the former's way over the last six games:
- Gainwell: 171 snaps
- Warren: 163 snaps
In that span, the first-year Steeler has emerged as a reliable receiver.
Gainwell recorded 202 receiving yards (33.6/game) and went 5-1 against this line. Last week, he caught six of seven targets for 27 yards.
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That type of volume would all but ensure he clears this total.
Miami has gotten diced up by RBs in the passing game this year, ceding the ninth-most receiving yards (458) to the position group.
Dolphins vs. Steelers picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET Dec. 13, 2025.
