Luka Doncic headlines Sunday's NBA prop bets as he continues to be one of the league's highest-volume shooters.
Today's NBA props narrative: Doncic chucks 3-pointers with the best of them, and I'm backing the over on his 3s prop for tonight. Elsewhere, look for Trey Murphy and Jalen Johnson to fill the stat sheet.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 14.
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NBA prop picks: Dec. 14
Best bet: Doncic over 3.5 threes (-136)
The over on Doncic's point total (35.5) is a bit too rich for me tonight, but I did want to find a way to back him. With a little extra juice on his 3s prop, this seems like a good place to land.
Doncic fires almost as many 3s as anyone, and high volume is a must for a line like this.
His 10.6 attempted 3s per game ranks third in the NBA.
We should see even more triples than usual from Doncic tonight with Austin Reaves (calf) ruled out. Reaves (7.6 3PA) is the only other Laker averaging at least half as many 3-point attempts as Doncic.
-> See full props for Luka Doncic and the Lakers!
In two games without Reaves this year, Doncic is 8-for-21 (38.1%) from deep and cashed this prop both times.
Overall, Doncic is 9-9 vs. this prop in the 2025-26 season.
Shooting at a 33.7% clip from beyond the arc, Doncic isn't the most efficient shooter by any means. But when you shoot as much as he does, there's always a chance to clear a line like this.
Since the start of the 2023-24 season (138 games), the five-time All-NBA guard is averaging 3.8 threes on 10.3 attempts.
Key stat: In Doncic's past five matchups vs. the Suns, he is 4-1 vs. this prop while shooting 41.8% on 11.0 attempts.
Best NBA picks
Johnson over 8.5 assists (-121): Johnson is a frontcourt player who has been doing his best impression of a point guard for quite some time now.
From Nov. 13 onward, Johnson leads the NBA in potential assists per game (18.8), which denotes all passes that lead directly to a shot.
In that span, Johnson is averaging 10.0 APG and is 8-5 vs. this line. He has 12 or more assists in three straight.
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Johnson will face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, and though he only had seven assists against them last time out (Nov. 30), it's clear there's room for a lot more.
The Sixers allow the second-most assists to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros, as well as the ninth-most assists overall.
NBA player prop predictions
Murphy over 19.5 points (-106): The Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans both rank in the bottom three in scoring defence. And the teams combined for 273 points when they last met on Nov. 24.
So, yes, I want a piece of this one in the prop market.
-> Bet on Trey Murphy vs. the Bulls!
Murphy, who's averaging 21.2 PPG this season, seems like a perfect candidate. He doesn't even have to reach his scoring average to get this done.
- He's 15-9 vs. this prop this year, landing on exactly 19 points in two other instances.
- When he faced the Bulls last month, Murphy shot 4-for-10 from deep and finished with 20 points.
So far in December, Murphy has 20+ points in all five games.
NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Dec. 14, 2025.
