The Dallas Cowboys host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football for a must-win game.
The pregame narrative: Dallas is 4-1-1 at home this season, with a pair of wins over last year's Super Bowl participants in the past month. The Cowboys are favoured over a Vikings squad that had lost four in a row before a 31-0 drubbing of the Commanders at home last weekend.
Check out my Vikings vs. Cowboys SGP predictions for Dec. 14, featuring Javonte Williams and Aaron Jones.
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Vikings vs. Cowboys SGP
SGP: Williams to score | Jones over 15.5 receiving yards | Cowboys -2.5 (+335)
Williams to score (-117): Dallas has the No. 3 scoring offence, and Williams is its bell cow tailback. At this price, I'm content to bet on him as a straight wager or in a parlay.
- Williams has scored 11 TDs this season and is 8-5 vs. this prop.
- He has a touchdown in back-to-back games and is 4-2 vs. this prop at home.
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The first-year Cowboy ranks sixth in the NFL in touches, which is great, but I'm more interested in his goal-line work. Fortunately, he's a high-volume player in that area, too.
Williams has at least one touch (i.e., a carry or reception) inside the five-yard line in 12 of 13 games. His 20 touches inside the five rank second in the NFL, behind only Derrick Henry.
Sunday Night Football SGP picks
Jones over 15.5 receiving yards (-114): Jones failed to bring in his lone target last week, resulting in an uncharacteristically quiet effort as a pass-catcher.
Sunday's matchup against Dallas is a great one, though, and Jones tends to be pretty regularly involved in the passing game. So I'm going to overlook the goose egg.
- Prior to Week 14, Jones had 2+ catches in six straight games. He averaged 17.7 receiving yards in those games.
- Jones is 5-4 vs. this receiving prop this season.
-> Bet on Javonte Williams & Aaron Jones on SNF
I'm not looking for ways to ride with J.J. "Nine" McCarthy right now, which is why I'm ducking prop markets for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and others. But simple dump-offs to Jones are within McCarthy's skill set.
The Cowboys have allowed the third-most receptions (5.4/game) and the second-most receiving yards (48.2/game) to opposing RBs this season.
Cowboys -2.5 (-210): A bounce-back win at home over the dreadful Commanders is nice ... but it hasn't made me forget about how inept the Vikings' offence was for weeks beforehand.
Minnesota's offence ranks 27th in points, 28th in yards, and 29th in EPA per play.
Through seven starts, McCarthy has 11 turnovers and only one game with 170+ passing yards.
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Dallas has been rather sieve-like on defence, but I think the Cowboys can win this battle of a stoppable force versus a moveable object.
More notably, I think the Cowboys' high-octane offence can put up a score that McCarthy's crew won't compete with.
Minnesota has scored 10 or fewer points in three of its past four road games.
Vikings vs. Cowboys predictions made at 3:35 p.m. ET on Dec. 13, 2025.
