A pair of talented NFC West foes will meet for a third time on Saturday night with a conference championship berth on the line.
The pregame narrative: The Seattle Seahawks are 7-point favourites against the San Francisco 49ers, who won as underdogs in Philadelphia last weekend. This is a grudge match, given that the Seahawks and Niners split their season series, 1-1.
Check out my 49ers vs. Seahawks picks, featuring prop bets on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Christian McCaffrey.
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49ers vs. Seahawks picks
SGP: Seahawks -3.5 | Smith-Njigba 100+ rec. yards | McCaffrey 40+ rec. yards (+350)
Seahawks -3.5 (-210): The Seahawks and Niners both won and covered as road favourites in their head-to-head matchups this season. Now, Seattle is at home as the biggest favourite of the divisional round.
And it makes sense, given how things have played out in the past couple of weeks.
- With the NFC's No. 1 seed on the line in Week 18, Seattle went into San Francisco and clawed out a 13-3 victory. The Seahawks dominated, with more than twice as many first downs and total yards as the Niners.
- The Seahawks are rested, coming off a bye, while the 49ers are playing on a short week after travelling cross-country from the eastern time zone.
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Both teams are in a groove, generally speaking, but Seattle has key situational advantages (rest and home field).
I've sliced the standard spread in half, and that's a number I expect the Seahawks — who had an NFL-best +191 point differential in the regular season — to cover.
49ers vs. Seahawks prop prediction
Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards (+108): A lot of teams have thrown successfully against the 49ers this season, and that should continue in this game. Good luck to whoever draws the short straw of lining up across from JSN.
The NFL's receiving yards leader (1,793) should cook, as he did in both matchups against San Francisco this season.
- Smith-Njigba posted 208 yards on 15 catches (21 targets) across two games vs. the Niners.
- All told, JSN averaged 105.5 yards per game this season. He went 9-8 vs. this yardage milestone.
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According to RBSDM.com, the Niners' defence ranks 25th in the NFL in dropback success rate and EPA per dropback. They also allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game this season.
Seattle is expected to be calm, clear, and above-freezing on Saturday night. Without any problematic weather, I expect Smith-Njigba to go off.
SGP prediction: Expect high volume for CMC
McCaffrey 40+ receiving yards (-205): After slowing down a bit as a receiver in the closing weeks of the regular season, McCaffrey was back to his usual, high-volume self in the wild-card round.
The Offensive Player of the Year candidate caught six of eight targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles.
He was far less effective in the run game, turning 15 carries into just 48 yards (3.2 YPC).
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Given that CMC only averaged 27.8 receiving yards from Weeks 13-18, it was nice to see an uptick in production with the Niners' season on the line. And with George Kittle (Achilles) out, I expect more of the same.
- In six games without Kittle this season, McCaffrey is 6-0 vs. this yardage milestone. He averaged 6.8 catches and 68.7 yards on 9.3 targets in those games.
- When he played in Seattle in Week 1, CMC caught nine passes for 73 yards.
49ers vs. Seahawks picks made at 2:30 p.m. on Jan. 15, 2025.
