One of Sunday's seven NBA games has caught my attention on the prop market.
Tonight's NBA prop narrative: The Philadelphia 76ers host the Detroit Pistons with the former playing on a back-to-back. That almost certainly means Joel Embiid will be sidelined, and Detroit is favoured as a result. I'm backing Detroit's Jalen Duren and am fading Philly's VJ Edgecombe.
Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 9, featuring Boston Celtics shooting guard Anfernee Simons.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 8
Best bet: Duren over 18.5 points (-107)
Duren is red-hot, and I want in.
- First four games: 20.3 MPG, 13.3 PPG, 57.6 FG%
- Last five games: 32.0 MPG, 24.0 PPG, 67.7 FG%
The Pistons' big man was eased into action but is now fully unleashed, and the results are undeniable.
He just scored 30 points against the Brooklyn Nets on Friday and had a 22-point, 22-rebound outing against the Utah Jazz the game before that.
I want to tap into his abilities as a scorer tonight, on what feels like a very light line against a depleted Sixers squad.
-> Bet on Duren to dominate the Sixers at NorthStar Bets
With Embiid likely out (he hasn't played on no rest since January 2024), Philly's frontcourt is lacking size. Paul George and Dominick Barlow are also out, so it'll mainly be 32-year-old Andre Drummond defending Duren.
Centres have eaten the 76ers alive this year, scoring the sixth-most PPG (25.35), per Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Duren has 20+ points in four of his last five games.
Today's best NBA prop bets
Edgecombe under 20.5 points and rebounds (-107): I faded Edgecombe on this exact market and number yesterday against the Toronto Raptors, and it came through.
The rookie guard finished with 11 points and seven rebounds in 36 minutes, extending his November shooting woes (four games):
- 11.5 PPG
- 34.0 FG%
- 22.2 3PT%
I anticipated Jared McCain to be heavily used yesterday, but he was a DNP coach's decision from Nick Nurse. That means he should get plenty of run tonight, with Embiid sitting out the back-to-back.
-> Fade Edgecombe against Detroit
Edgecombe is getting lots of run for a rookie, so it would make sense for Nurse to pull back a bit, given his shooting struggles and McCain's return.
On top of that, the Pistons allow the 12th-fewest PPG to opposing SGs.
Simons 3+ threes (+138): There's a lot to like about Simons at this price.
No team shot more 3s than the Celtics last year, so Simons was a no-brainer addition after Jayson Tatum went down with an injury.
The shooting guard averaged 3.2 threes on 38.1% shooting over his last four years with the Portland Trail Blazers. And he's been lighting it up with Boston so far:
- Simons is averaging 2.8 threes on 7.2 attempts per game (38.9%).
- He has cleared this mark in five of his last seven games.
The Orlando Magic, Simons' opponent tonight, rank 20th in 3-point defence. Boston just played Orlando on Friday, and Simons went 3-for-6 from deep.
NBA prop picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 11/09/2025.
