I'm backing Jamal Murray and a pair of bigs on Monday night in the NBA prop market.
Today's NBA props narrative: Murray hasn't had a ton of huge scoring outputs this season, but his perimeter shooting has ticked up lately, and he has an exploitable matchup tonight. Elsewhere, Alperen Sengun and Donovan Clingan should take advantage of key absences in their games.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 24.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 24
Best bet: Clingan over 9.5 rebounds (-130)
The Giannis-sized absence in tonight's Blazers/Bucks game should be particularly notable when Clingan is around the ball.
If both players were healthy, there'd surely be a ton of low-post battles for rebounds between the big men. But with Giannis sitting out due to a groin strain, I expect that battle to be rather one-sided.
Yes, the Bucks have other bigs, led by the 6-foot-11 Myles Turner and the 6-foot-10 Bobby Portis. But neither of those players is known for grabbing a boatload of boards.
Turner and Portis average 6.4 rebounds and 5.8 rebounds, respectively. They've played 17 games apiece and have just one 10-rebound performance between the two of them.
-> Bet on Donovan Clingan vs. the Bucks tonight!
Clingan, at 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, will have the size advantage over everyone tonight. Giannis would've had the athleticism advantage, but we don't have to worry about that.
Just last week, Clingan exploded for 21 rebounds against the Chicago Bulls. He's now 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven games while averaging 11.4 RPG.
Giannis has missed four games so far, and at least one opposing player has 10+ rebounds in three of those four games. Clingan should be next up.
Key stat: Clingan has a 57.7% success rate on contested rebounds, which ranks ninth out of 379 players (min. five games played), per NBA.com.
Best NBA picks
Sengun over 24.5 points (-114): The Phoenix Suns seem like a good matchup for Kevin Durant, given his affinity for midrange shots. With Durant (personal) out tonight, Sengun seems like the logical player to pick up the slack.
- According to Cleaning The Glass, the Suns allow the 10th-most midrange shots and the 12th-highest FG% from the midrange.
- Sengun attempts 46% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 96th percentile among centres.
-> Bet on Monday's 10-game NBA slate
Durant leads the Rockets in shot attempts (17.1/game), and Sengun sits closely behind him (16.6/game). So it makes sense to expect Sengun's shot volume to climb on Monday.
The Turkish centre had a relatively quiet showing last time out against Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets, but he'd cashed this bet in three straight games before that.
NBA player prop predictions
Murray over 23.5 points (-108): Murray is only 4-11 vs. this points prop this season, which makes this seem like a tough sell. But he's been oh-so-close a bunch of times.
The Kitchener, Ontario native has finished with 22 or 23 points in six of the 11 unders. With the right matchup, this point total is one he can absolutely exceed.
-> Back Kitchener's Jamal Murray against Memphis on Monday!
Murray will get such a matchup tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, who allow the fourth-most points to opposing point guards (28.84), per Fantasy Pros.
The last time Murray played at Memphis, which was November of last season, he shot 5-for-10 from 3-point range en route to scoring 27 points.
The ninth-year vet is heating up from deep again, posting a 40.7 3PT% over his past eight games.
NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.
