Decorated running back Christian McCaffrey will face his former team for the first time on Monday night, as the San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers.
The pregame narrative: McCaffrey was dealt to the Niners amid the 2022 season and has remained an elite offensive weapon when healthy. He's had a clean bill of health this year and is expected to put up big numbers in prime time against the Panthers.
Check out my Panthers vs. 49ers picks for Nov. 24, featuring a prop bet on McCaffrey.
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Panthers vs. 49ers picks
Best Bet: McCaffrey over 42.5 receiving yards (-117)
The durability of McCaffrey this season has been a pleasant surprise for NFL fans, and it's not like there's been a tradeoff in his production.
McCaffrey, a two-time All-Pro, is pacing the NFL in touches (267) and scrimmage yards (1,439). And he hasn't missed a game for the 7-4 Niners.
When looking at McCaffrey's offensive output, what really stands out is his work as a receiver. He's been exceptionally steady in terms of opportunities and productivity:
- 6+ targets in all 11 games
- 40+ yards in all 11 games
- 6.7 catches/game
- 66.5 yards/game
He's coming off his worst receiving performance of the season, mind you, but it's all relative. Last week, he caught five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown.
McCaffrey has more than twice as many receptions as anyone else on the Niners, which is due in part to his ability to stay healthy. But he's not just catching screen passes and falling down.
The nine-year vet has averaged a career-best 9.9 yards per reception. He sees 21.1 air yards per game, which may not seem like much, but it's the highest total among NFL running backs (per Rotowire).
Carolina allows the sixth-most targets per game to opposing RBs (6.36), so McCaffrey should continue to see heavy usage.
Key stat: McCaffrey is 4-0 vs. this receiving prop in home games, going over 65 yards in each of those matchups.
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MNF over/under prediction
Over 49.5 points (-109): Neither of these defences impresses me, and with the 49ers looking as healthy as they have all year on offence, I expect plenty of points.
- Overs are 6-1-1 in San Francisco's past eight games.
- Each of the Niners' past three games has finished with at least 58 total points.
- Carolina matched a season-high point total last week in a 30-27 win in Atlanta.
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Since Week 4, the Panthers and 49ers have ranked 28th and 29th, respectively, in EPA per play on defence (according to RBSMD.com). The Niners have also allowed the third-worst success rate in that span (51.1%).
I'm not going to sing Bryce Young's praises, but he's been solid over his past five games: 94.1 passer rating, 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 65.0% completion rate.
If Young can move the ball a bit and put up a few scores, I think a healthy Brock Purdy and the 49ers will be able to handle the rest.
Panthers vs. 49ers picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET Nov. 22, 2025.
