NBA prop picks Jan. 18: Back Kevin Durant and LaMelo Ball on Sunday

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Check out Sunday's top NBA prop bets! Photos by AP.

Kevin Durant and LaMelo Ball headline Sunday's NBA prop bets.

Tonight's NBA props narrative: Durant has been on a tear for the Houston Rockets, and can do damage against the bottom-feeding New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, expect Ball to stay red-hot from beyond the arc.

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Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 18, featuring a pick on Chicago's Matas Buzelis.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 18

Best bet: Durant 25+ points (-125)

Houston is a big favourite in this matchup, setting the table for a game with blowout potential. 

That’s what the -13.5 spread indicates, at least. But I’m not worried about that.

The Rockets are 3-5 in their last eight games with zero double-digit wins. That’s no fault of Durant, who averaged 29.5 points while shooting 49.7% from the field during that span.

The future Hall of Famer has been an incredibly consistent scorer in his 18th season, reaching another gear lately.

He is 9-3 against this mark in his last 12 games, scoring 30-plus points six times.

-> Bet on Kevin Durant vs. the Pelicans!

KD has a sky-high shot volume, which is always nice, and now goes up against a Pelicans team which struggles to defend the mid-range.

  • New Orleans has the fourth-worst mid-range defence (45.9%) and the third-worst defensive rating (119.2) in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
  • Durant takes 60% of his shots from the mid-range. That ranks in the 99th percentile among all forwards.

I don’t expect the Rockets to boatrace a Pelicans team which has kept five straight games within double digits.

That means Durant will get ample opportunities to fill the net.

Key stat: Durant has cleared this mark in four of his last six home games. 

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Ball 4+ threes (+114): When Ball and Kon Knueppel get hot at the same time, watch out.

The former is doing his part to make it rain from beyond-the-arc, putting up some ridiculous numbers since returning from injury on Dec. 18:

  • 4.5 makes/game
  • 10.1 attempts/game
  • 44.7 3PT%

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Ball is 10-6 against this line in that span, and is two games removed from hitting nine 3s against the Los Angeles Lakers.

His opponent tonight, the Denver Nuggets, doesn't give up a ton from deep, but is also playing on a back-to-back without Christian Braun and Nikola Jokic.

Ball is also playing on no rest, but he's a career 39.8% three-point shooter on back-to-backs.

Buzelis over 15.5 points (-105): Buzelis gets another crack at the Brooklyn Nets following a disappointing showing on Friday, where he shot 4-for-15 from the field.

Still, the Lithuanian finished just shy of this mark with 15 points.

In his last eight games when playing 20-plus minutes, Buzelis is averaging 19.2 points and is 6-2 against this line. He scored exactly 15 points in both of the outliers.

That's a great floor to work with, and one he should exceed against Brooklyn.

The Nets have a bottom-10 defensive rating and give up the ninth-most points per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

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NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 18, 2026.

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