The NBA's reigning MVP is back in action tonight, and I've got my eye on him in the prop market.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets a ton of buckets on a nightly basis, and it doesn't seem to matter who's guarding the opposing hoop. His points prop tonight is set below his season average, and I say he clears it against the Houston Rockets.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 15, featuring Jrue Holiday and Derrick White.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 15
Best bet: Holiday over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120)
Holiday is working his way back to full strength for the Portland Trail Blazers, and he couldn't be doing so at a better time.
Coinciding with Holiday's resurgence — after a 27-game layoff due to a calf injury — is the fact that Deni Avdija will miss his second consecutive game tonight with a back issue.
Avdija was everything for the Blazers in Holiday's absence, averaging 26.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 8.0 assists without the veteran point guard.
Will Holiday be able to replicate that production sans-Avdija? No chance, but this PRA line isn't asking for nearly that much.
Before his injury, Holiday averaged 16.7 points, 8.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds (30.3 PRA). Once he's fully back up to speed, we won't see a PRA line this low.
Holiday is getting there, though he's still on a minutes restriction. Tonight will be his third game back, but we've already seen a nice progression from Games 1-2:
- Jan. 11: 8 points (2-of-7 shooting), 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 14 PRA
- Jan. 13: 12 points (4-of-12 shooting), 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 23 PRA
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Holiday played 16:17 in his first game back, and then 20:53 in the second game. He was averaging 33.3 minutes pre-injury, so he should see another uptick tonight.
Key stat: Holiday will face the Atlanta Hawks, who played at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. As a result, they allow the fifth-most assists and rebounds, along with the sixth-most points in the league.
Best NBA picks
Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points (-112): Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the best scorer in the world right now. But he's undoubtedly the most consistent.
- SGA has scored 20+ points in 111 straight games, which is the second-longest streak of all time behind Wilt Chamberlain (1961-63). I'm looking for more than that out of the Hamilton, Ontario native tonight, but it gives a basic illustration of his elite consistency.
- The reigning MVP and scoring champ sits at 31.9 PPG this season, leading the NBA in made field goals (10.9/game). He's also second in the league in made free throws (8.2/game).
- He has 30+ points in 28 of 39 games (71.8%).
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Houston is a tough team to score against, but Gilgeous-Alexander is even tougher to defend.
He dropped 35 on the Rockets back in October and is 7-2 vs. this prop when facing Houston since the start of the 2023-24 season.
NBA player prop predictions
White 4+ threes (+110): I'm taking a plus-money swing on White, who went berserk the last time he faced the Miami Heat.
Last month, White posted 9-of-14 shooting from beyond the arc against Miami in a 33-point effort. The matchup is right for him to thrive again from deep.
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Miami allows the fourth-most attempted 3s per game (40.3), so White should have the opportunity to fire away.
Since the start of December, White is averaging 3.7 makes on 10.8 attempts from 3-point range. You need solid shot volume to hit a milestone like this, and I expect he'll get that against Miami.
NBA prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on Jan. 15, 2026.
