A trio of big-name players have my attention in the NBA prop market on Tuesday night.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't need to put up huge scoring totals to make a difference for the New York Knicks, and I'm fading his point total tonight. Out west, De'Aaron Fox has a very attainable assists line against a poor defensive squad that's playing on zero rest.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 10, including a prediction on Kawhi Leonard.
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NBA prop picks Feb. 10
Best bet: Fox over 5.5 assists (-130)
The San Antonio Spurs basically operate with two point guards, which can make it tough to back either one on any given night.
Fox works in tandem with reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. Both players average over 6.0 assists and 17-20 points per game.
San Antonio faces the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and that's a great matchup for point guards. L.A. allows the most assists per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros, as well as the sixth-most assists overall.
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Fox's assists line is set one below Castle (o/u 6.5), and that's where I'm leaning despite the extra juice.
Why? Primarily because Fox has been steadily at or above that line in recent weeks. He has five or more assists in 11 straight games.
In that 11-game span, he also leads the Spurs in potential assists per game (13.5), which denotes passes that lead directly to a shot.
Castle dropped 40 points last time out, so hopefully he'll be in more of a shooting mindset again. But either way, Fox has been a high-floor play at this number for a solid stretch.
Key stat: Over his past 11 games, Fox is 8-3 vs. this prop while averaging 7.5 APG.
Best NBA picks
Leonard over 6.5 rebounds (+110): With James Harden out of the picture in Los Angeles, Leonard has needed to do it all for the Clippers. That includes crashing the glass.
On the season overall, Kawhi has averaged 6.3 rebounds. But he's cashed this over in all three games since Harden's trade to Cleveland went down.
Leonard is now 7-1 vs. this prop in his past eight games without Harden, who does his fair share of rebounding as a guard.
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The Houston Rockets pose one of the toughest defensive matchups in the NBA, but Kawhi had no problems against them last time out in late December: 41 points and eight rebounds in 37 minutes.
NBA player prop predictions
Towns under 19.5 points (-118): Towns has been superb as a rebounder for the Knicks recently, but his offensive numbers are down.
The five-time all-star is averaging 19.7 PPG this season, which is nearly five points below his mark last year. And it's been even worse over the past four-ish weeks.
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Check out Towns' numbers since Jan. 14:
- 13 games
- 15.6 PPG
- 43.8 FG%
- 34.7 3PT%
- Under 20 points in 10 of 13
In a game with big-time blowout potential — New York is laying 11.5 points at home vs. the Indiana Pacers — this is a good time to fade the big man.
NBA prop picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 10, 2026.
