The PGA Tour heads to California for its first signature event of the season at historic Pebble Beach.
The latest: This 80-player, no-cut event is played at two courses (Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill), with one round at Spyglass and three at Pebble. Scottie Scheffler is favoured, with Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood high up the odds board in their season debuts.
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Check out my Pebble Beach predictions for the golf event beginning on Feb. 12, featuring a best bet on Viktor Hovland.
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Pebble Beach predictions and betting odds
We hit three top 20s last week (Hideki Matsuyama +130, Sahith Theegala +163, Maverick McNealy +163), and just missed Matsuyama outright at +2,200 after he bogeyed the 72nd hole and lost in a playoff.
I'll chalk that up as a competitive miss and am looking to ride the momentum into this event.
Just like last week, I'm opting out of betting on or against the World No. 1 by making my outright picks in the "Winner without Scottie Scheffler" market.
| Player | Odds to win Pebble Beach |
| Scottie Scheffler | +275 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1,400 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2,200 |
| Russell Henley | +2,500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2,500 |
| Justin Rose | +2,800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2,800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2,800 |
| Chris Gotterup | +3,000 |
| Ben Griffin | +3,300 |
| Cameron Young | +3,300 |
See the full Pebble Beach odds board at NorthStar Bets!
Best bet: Hovland winner w/o Scheffler (+2,000) & top 20 finish (+125)
Pebble Beach features the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, placing an emphasis on iron play and scrambling.
Hovland fits the bill.
- In this field, the Norwegian ranks inside the top 11 for strokes gained: approach in the last 30 days, three months, and six months, per DataGolf.
- He has a historically suspect short game but has gained strokes around the greens in seven straight events.
- In his season debut at the WM Phoenix Open last week, Hovland was fifth in SG: APP and 14th in SG: ARG. He finished T10.
He also has a great history at Pebble Beach. Hovland won the U.S. Amateur here in 2018, finished T12 at the U.S. Open in 2019 and was T22 last year (while losing strokes around the green).
If his short game is dialled in, which it sure seems to be, I see a clear path to PGA Tour win No. 8.
Key stat: Hovland has seven straight top 25 finishes (six top 20s) dating back to the 2025 BMW Championship.
Pebble Beach picks
Sahith Theegala winner w/o Scheffler (+3,300) & top 20 finish (+188): At his best, Theegala is an elite ball striker with a strong short game.
We didn't see much of that last year, when he had just one top 20 in a stroke play event.
But from 2023-2024, Theegala was elite, logging ten top-five finishes and a win.
It's looking like he's back on track.
The American has three straight top-20 finishes and has picked up nearly a stroke per round on approach in his last two events.
Go to Pebble Beach Pro-Am betting markets!
Sepp Straka winner w/o Scheffler (+6,000) & top 20 finish (+200): Finally, I'm going well down the board with Straka.
The Austrian is coming off a career season, winning two PGA Tour events, with 14 top 20s and just three missed cuts.
He ranked seventh in SG: APP and finished T7 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Straka's short game isn't fantastic, but he is one of the world's best with a short iron or wedge in hand.
In this field, he ranks second in average strokes gained for shots between 100-150 yards. That is where most of his approaches will come from this week, so I’m confident he can hit enough greens to go low.
Pebble Beach predictions made at 9:30 a.m. on Feb. 10, 2026.
