The Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers close out Monday's slate of NBA action.
The pregame narrative: The Mavericks enter tonight's game after back-to-back losses, while the Trail Blazers are feeling good following an upset win over the Boston Celtics. Still, I'm looking to fade Portland as a favourite in what I expect to be a low-scoring game.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers SGP predictions for Dec. 29, featuring a prop bet on Deni Avdija.
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Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers predictions
Parlay: Mavericks +6.5 | Under 237.5 points | Avdija under 25.5 points (+285)
Mavericks +6.5 (-235): This is solely a play against Portland.
The Trail Blazers have been downright dreadful as favourites this season. They own a 2-9 ATS record in this situation, with an ATS margin of -8.5 points.
Additionally, winning by seven points or more isn't something Portland has done with any frequency this year. The Trail Blazers have failed to cover this spread in each of their last 10 games — as well as 19 of their last 21.
-> Bet on Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks!
Dallas is certainly capable of putting up a stinker, but it does own a 13-9 ATS record as an underdog this season and is 6-3 across its last nine games as a dog.
The Mavericks and Trail Blazers played earlier this season, and Dallas came out on top with a 138-133 overtime win.
NBA SGP legs
Under 237.5 points (-155): Secondly, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair.
Points are usually at a premium when bad offences square off, and these are two of the worst:
- The Trail Blazers rank 24th in offensive rating (109.8).
- The Mavericks place 28th in offensive rating (107.4).
Anthony Davis is on the injury report ahead of this contest, but even if he's out, this is a Dallas team that can defend well.
-> Take the under at NorthStar Bets!
The Mavericks are tied for ninth in defensive efficiency (111.0).
Avdija under 25.5 points (+285): Lastly, I expect Avdija to be held in check.
Portland's leading scorer is averaging 25.5 points per game this season and did tally 29 in his lone contest against the Mavericks.
But Avdija isn't entering this contest in fine form.
-> Fade Avdija and bet on the NBA tonight!
The Israeli point guard has fallen short of this mark in four of his last five games and six of his last nine.
What gives me confidence in Avdija staying in check is his poor 3-point shooting recently. He enters this contest converting just 29% of his 3s over his last six games.
Dallas is ceding the lowest 3-point percentage to opponents this season (33.3%).
