The Denver Nuggets are massive home favourites on Monday night against the reeling Chicago Bulls.
The pregame narrative: Chicago lost as a favourite in Utah last night to extend its losing skid to five games. Josh Giddey has been spectacular for an otherwise pedestrian Bulls team, though, and he should remain active at Ball Arena.
Check out my Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Nov. 17, including a prop prediction on Denver's Peyton Watson.
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Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP
Parlay: Nuggets -11.5 | Watson over 8.5 points | Giddey 8+ assists (+320)
Nuggets -11.5 (-159): At home, with a rest advantage, the Nuggets are expected to maul the Bulls. And I think they will.
- Denver is on a six-game ATS win streak and is 9-3 ATS overall this season.
- At home, the Nuggets are 6-0 with a +19.0 average margin of victory.
-> Wager on Bulls vs. Nuggets before the 9 p.m. ET tip-off
The Bulls just kicked off their road trip with back-to-back losses as favourites. They've now dropped five in a row, allowing north of 120 points in each of those games.
I trimmed three points off the standard spread to give Denver a bit more leeway. But that shouldn't be necessary for a team with the second-best net rating in the league (+13.0).
NBA SGP legs
Watson over 8.5 points (-130): This is a gritty pick for a guy who has come off the bench in 10 of 12 games and is averaging 6.5 points. But it's not a completely random pull on my part.
- Watson loves to attack the rim, and he should be able to get to his spot routinely tonight.
- The Bulls allow the highest rate of shots around the rim among all teams (37.5%), per Cleaning the Glass.
- For Watson's part, he takes 60.0% of his shots around the rim (91st percentile among small forwards).
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I expect a blowout tonight, and with that, I think there's a chance the 23-year-old gets more run in mop-up duty.
He scored 12 points in a season-high 34 minutes last time out (Saturday in Minnesota). That was Denver's ninth win by a double-digit margin this season.
Giddey 8+ assists (-230): The Bulls are sliding, but Giddey isn't slowing down.
Giddey put up 26 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists on Sunday for his third triple-double in five games this month.
-> Bet on Josh Giddey on Monday night
On the season, he's averaging nearly a triple-double through 10 games (21.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 9.7 APG). He's 7-3 vs. this assists milestone on the season.
Coby White made his season debut for the Bulls last night and could cut into Giddey's assist opportunity. But I still view this milestone as a relatively safe one for the Aussie-born guard.
Giddey cashed this bet in both matchups vs. the Nuggets last year. Also, he's currently fifth in the NBA in potential assists per game (14.9), which denotes the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.
Bulls vs. Nuggets SGP made at 12:15 p.m. ET 11/17/2025.
