The Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders close out Week 11 on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Dallas is fresh off a bye after embarrassing back-to-back losses, and looks to right the ship against the 2-7 Raiders. The Cowboys are slightly favoured, but their porous defence should allow Geno Smith and Co. to move the ball down the field.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Raiders picks for Nov. 15, featuring a prop bet on Ashton Jeanty.
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Cowboys vs. Raiders picks
Best Bet: Jeanty over 63.5 rushing yards (-115)
Dallas' defence has been ridiculously bad. Just look at how it ranks in several key metrics:
- 31st in PPG (30.8)
- 31st in yards per game (397.4)
- 31st in EPA per play (+0.172)
The Cowboys also rank bottom eight in rushing yards allowed per game, EPA per rush, and opponent yards per carry.
Maybe trading away Micah Parsons wasn't such a good idea.
I'm sure Pete Carroll is thrilled he doesn't have to worry about Parsons, and I expect him to give Jeanty a heavy dosage of carries in this matchup.
The 2025 No. 6 overall pick hasn't looked anything like his college self so far, but he's also playing behind a horrible offensive line.
Still, he has 60-plus rushing yards in five of nine games and ranks 11th among all RBs in carries (143).
Dallas' defence offsets Las Vegas' O-line issues, meaning Jeanty should have some room between the tackles to cook.
Key stat: Five of the last six RBs to face Dallas have cleared this total.
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MNF prediction
Over 3.5 field goals (-107): This is a bit of a niche pick, but I think it should cash with ease.
The Cowboys' defence is awful, and the Raiders aren't much better. Las Vegas is 19th in EPA per play and allows 3.8 red zone scoring attempts per game. Only three teams give up more, and one is Dallas (4.0).
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Dak Prescott has the Cowboys' offence humming, and Brandon Aubrey is arguably the best kicker in today's NFL with a 60-plus yard range.
The Raiders rank a middling 15th in opponent red zone TD rate, meaning Aubrey should be used early and often.
Daniel Carlson, Vegas' place kicker, has only one field goal in the last three games, but he was averaging 1.83 before that.
Cowboys vs. Raiders picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET Nov. 15, 2025.
