A disastrous offence meets a disastrous defence on Monday Night Football, and I've got a +750 long shot TD scorer in my sights.
The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys' defence has struggled to stop much of anything this year, while the Las Vegas Raiders' offence has been just as inept at putting up points. Raiders rookie Dont'e Thornton Jr. is an intriguing flier to break through for the Raiders at home.
Check out my top Cowboys vs. Raiders MNF TD picks for Week 11, featuring Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson.
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Cowboys vs. Raiders TD picks: Week 11
Best bet: Ferguson to score a TD (+160)
Before I make a case for my long shot play, let's start with a safer option.
Ferguson didn't find the end zone in his final two games before the Cowboys' bye, but he's seeing plenty of high-quality targets and has a pretty enticing price to find his way back.
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- Ferguson has 6+ targets and 5+ catches in seven of nine games.
- In the red zone, Ferguson has been targeted 14 times over the past seven games. He's 4-3 vs. this prop in that span, with six TDs overall.
- Ferguson's 14 red zone targets lead the Cowboys. George Pickens (11 RZ targets) is the only other player in double digits.
Ferguson had zero TDs last season on 59 catches. That's because he wasn't a focal point in the red zone.
The one-time Pro Bowler has more targets inside the 10-yard line in his past three games (four) than he had across 14 games last year (three).
There are three Cowboys with shorter TD odds than Ferguson, and I don't believe that should be the case. Given his volume of red zone looks, I think he's a value play at this price.
Key stat: Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in six of his past seven games.
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Sunday Night Football TD picks
Thornton to score a TD (+750): It's easy to see why Thornton is a long shot pick to score. He only has one catch since Week 4 and one red zone target all season.
If there was ever a time to swing for the fences with him, though, it's against this Dallas defence.
- Dallas has allowed 16 receiving TDs to wide receivers through nine games (1.8/game), far and away the most in the NFL. The Chicago Bears are next, surrendering 14 TDs in 10 games (1.4/game).
- Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.9 passer rating vs. the Cowboys this season, per Rotowire. For context, reigning MVP Josh Allen has a 105.6 passer rating this year.
-> Bet on Thornton to score as a +750 long shot
Thornton was No. 2 among Raiders receivers in offensive snaps in two of their past three games. But he was also a healthy scratch in the other matchup.
I don't expect Thornton to be targeted much in the red zone, but I'm swinging for the fences with him because he's a home run hitter.
The fourth-round draftee has an 18.5-yard average depth of target, which ranks in the 98th percentile. His 28.6% catch rate, meanwhile, is dead last in the NFL.
This is an all-or-nothing proposition, and I'm taking my chances against the best matchup imaginable.
Cowboys vs. Raiders predictions made at 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 17, 2025.
