The Toronto Maple Leafs are home underdogs on Thursday when they host the Los Angeles Kings.
The pregame narrative: Things aren't going well in Leaf Land. Toronto is giving up the most goals per game, has dropped three straight, and currently sits 15th in the Eastern Conference. Injuries to Auston Matthews and Anthony Stolarz, both of whom are questionable at the time of writing, loom large.
Check out my Kings vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for the game on Nov. 13
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Editor's note: Auston Matthews is out tonight with a lower-body injury, per Chris Johnston.
Kings vs. Maple Leafs prop picks
Best Bet: Perry to record a point (+112)
There isn't much to like about Toronto's defensive game.
The Leafs look slow and disinterested, ceding 3.82 goals per game. On top of that, they're allowing the fifth-most chances (62.84) and shots (30.66) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.
Goaltending was the team's greatest strength last year, but that's far from the case so far:
- Stolarz (who might not play tonight) has a 3.51 GAA and an .884 SV%. Those marks rank 45th and 40th, respectively, among all netminders.
- Backup Dennis Hildeby hasn't been much better with a 3.74 GAA and .909 SV%. He gave up five goals in his lone start on Sunday against the Carolina Hurricanes.
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There's plenty of time for the Leafs to turn things around, but I'm content on fading them until they give me a reason not to.
That said, Perry is my value pick to find the score sheet for Los Angeles. The journeyman winger has been on fire to start the season with seven goals and 11 points in 11 games.
He's been shuffled throughout the lineup but is a mainstay on the top power-play unit, where he has contributed three points.
Getting him to record a point at plus money seems fair to me.
Key stat: Perry has a point in eight of his last 10 games.
Best NHL prop picks
Nylander over 2.5 shots (-143): The Maple Leafs have been in almost every game thanks to Nylander, who ranks sixth in the NHL with 24 points, and the offence.
The Swede is on a heater right now with five goals and nine points in his last five games. In that span, he's averaging 3.8 shots per game and is 3-2 against this line.
-> Wager on Nylander to contribute for the Maple Leafs
If Matthews is out, Nylander might draw a tougher matchup. But he'll also likely see more ice time, so I think that should even things out.
Either way, this line seems low.
Kings vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/13/2025.
