The ATP Finals continue on Thursday with the final slate of round-robin matches for the Jimmy Connors Group.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz is unbeaten so far and is a massive favourite over No. 8-seed Lorenzo Musetti. Assuming the Spaniard wins, the winner of Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur would advance to the semi-finals.
Check out my top ATP Finals tennis predictions for Nov. 13 below.
-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the ATP Finals
ATP Finals tennis predictions Nov. 13
Best bet: Fritz vs. de Minaur over 22.5 games (-120)
This duo plays before Alcaraz and Musetti, which takes a pinch of drama out of the match.
But it would be a shocker to see Alcaraz lose, so it's fair to say Fritz and de Minaur will be playing as if their lives depend on it. That said, I expect a long and drawn-out war between two of the game's best.
Fritz pushed Alcaraz to the brink in his round-robin defeat on Tuesday, losing 6-7, 7-5, 6-3. He handled Musetti before that but is 5-5 overall in his last 10 matches.
With both players on their A-game, I think Fritz could win in straight sets. But there are chinks in his armour right now, and de Minaur's elite defensive play should help him secure a few key breaks throughout the match.
-> Bet on Fritz vs. de Minaur at the ATP Finals
The Australian is having the best season of his career, posting a 42-16 record across all hardcourt surfaces.
de Minaur is 0-2 in group stage play so far, but he also pushed Alcaraz to a tiebreak and lost in three sets to Musetti. He's gone over this total in three of his last five matches.
Key stat: de Minaur and Fritz are 5-5 against each other, with four of their last six matches requiring three sets and going over this total.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti tennis pick
Alcaraz -4.5 games (-125): Musetti snapped his five-match losing streak against top-10 players on Tuesday with a win over de Minaur.
But he needed tie breaks to win each set, and it doesn't paper over his larger problems against great players on this surface:
- Musetti is 3-16 against top-10 ranked opponents on hardcourts, losing 14 of those matches in straight sets.
- That includes an 0-2 record against Alcaraz, where Musetti lost 6-3, 6-3 and 6-2, 6-2.
Overall, the Spaniard has dominated this matchup. He is 6-1 against the Italian, with the only loss coming way back in 2022.
-> Bet on Alcaraz to beat Musetti
Alcaraz is at his best on clay, just like Musetti, but he can dominate on any surface. Just look at his Grand Slam trophy cabinet.
You can't say the same about Musetti, who has a very mediocre 54% win rate on hardcourts.
This should be a rout.
ATP Finals tennis predictions made at 3:30 p.m. on 11/12/2025.
