The Dallas Open quarterfinal is on Friday, with two afternoon matches and two primetime duels.
The pregame narrative: I'm focusing on the night session for these picks, which features a matchup between reigning champion Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The Canadian is a slight favourite in what should be a close match.
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Check out my top Dallas Open tennis picks for Feb. 13, featuring a pick on Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Ben Shelton.
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Dallas Open tennis picks
Best bet: Davidovich Fokina to win (+116)
Davidovich Fokina has my attention this year.
The Spaniard sits at a career-best No. 14 on the ATP rankings after going 44-26 in 2025. He struggled to close out tournaments, making four finals and losing all of them, but getting there is half the battle.
It's worth noting that all of those finals were on hard courts, where Davidovich Fokina has his best surface winning percentage (60.5%).
He beat some strong competition in the run-up to those finals, including Shelton, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz (twice), and Shapovalov.
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Shapovalov has really struggled to beat top-end competition as of late. Over the last 52 weeks, he is 1-6 against players in the top 20, including 0-5 on hard court.
On top of that, he is a pedestrian 3-2 this year, losing in straight sets to Martin Cilic in the second round of the Australian Open while being broken six times.
The Canadian does have good vibes at this venue, but I expect his title defence to end on Friday.
Key stat: Davidovich Fokina is 36-21 on hard courts since the start of last year.
Ben Shelton Dallas Open predictions
Kecmanovic vs. Shelton under 22.5 games (-137): Shelton has a habit of destroying lesser-ranked competition on hard courts, and I think this match should be over quickly.
- On hard courts, Shelton is 18-5 against players outside of the ATP top 20 since entering the top 10 last July. He won 13 of those matches in straight sets.
- In that span, this under is 12-3 in best-of-three matches on hardcourts when Shelton plays someone outside of the top 20.
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Kecmanovic and Shelton have never done battle before, but I think the American has a clear advantage.
Shelton is ninth in serve rating over the last 52 weeks and has a whopping 36 aces over his two matches played at this event.
Kecmanovic is a pedestrian 44th in return rating. He did just beat Tommy Paul, but Shelton is on a different level than his countryman.
Dallas Open tennis picks made at 9 a.m. on Feb. 13, 2026.
