The Australian Open quarterfinals are set, and the draw did not disappoint.
The pregame narrative: On the men's side, seven of the top eight seeds have reached the quarters. That includes the ageless Novak Djokovic, who's favoured to reach what would be a record-extending 54th grand slam semifinal.
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Check out my top Australian Open quarterfinal picks for Jan. 26 and 27, featuring Carlos Alcaraz and Elena Rybakina.
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Australian Open quarterfinal picks
Best bet: Djokovic -1.5 sets (-141)
I'll happily back Djokovic against anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner right now.
In the last two years at grand slams, the Serbian is 1-5 against the young duo and 36-3 against everyone else.
And one of the losses against the masses should be marked with an asterisk. Djokovic was forced to retire after one set against Alexander Zverev in last year's Australian Open while dealing with a torn muscle in his leg.
-> Check out the quarterfinal Australian Open schedule
This time around, Djokovic has a distinct rest advantage in his quarterfinal matchup against Lorenzo Musetti after advancing past Jakub Mensik due to a pre-match withdrawal:
- Djokovic: 6 hours 59 minutes played, 9 sets
- Musetti: 12 hours 26 minutes played, 15 sets
Djokovic has won every game so far without dropping a set, while Musetti needed four and five sets to win a pair of matches.
I trust the well-rested Djokovic to put on a clinic in the quarterfinal.
Key stat: Djokovic is 9-1 against Musetti, winning three of the last four meetings in straight sets.
Australian Open pick: Rybakina vs. Swiatek best bet
Rybakina to win (-112): On Sunday, I picked Rybakina to cover a -5.5 game spread against Elise Mertens. She did just that, winning 6-1, 6-3.
Swiatek is a big step up in competition, but is definitely beatable.
Rybakina capped off her 2025 season with a win at the WTA Finals, beating Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka to secure her first title. Overall, she has won 18 of her last 20 matches on hard courts.
-> Bet on Swiatek in the quarters of the Australian Open
And I'm not worried about nerves getting to her against an experienced player like Swiatek. The Kazakhstani reached the final at this tournament in 2023 and won the French Open in 2022.
Top Carlos Alcaraz Australian Open prediction
Alcaraz -2.5 sets (+130): Alex de Minaur is playing the best tennis of his life and will have the home crowd on his side — but he's running into an absolute buzz saw.
Alcaraz has won every match this tournament in straight sets, while only being broken five times.
Sinner aside, the Spaniard has now won 10 straight grand slam matches in straight sets. That includes a win over Djokovic and most recently, a win over Tommy Paul.
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Alcaraz is also a perfect 5-0 against de Minaur, winning the last two meetings in straight sets.
With a career grand slam in sight, I expect Alcaraz to methodically pick apart the Australian on his home turf.
Australian Open quarterfinal picks made at 12:50 p.m. on Jan. 26, 2026.
