The Buffalo Bills are back at Highmark Stadium for a Week 11 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The pregame narrative: Two teams with Super Bowl ambitions look to rebound from tough losses. Josh Allen's Bills have a much cleaner injury report than Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers, though, and are 5.5-point home favourites as a result.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Bills SGP predictions on Nov. 16.
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Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions
SGP: Bills -2.5 | Allen anytime TD | Mayfield 200+ passing yards (+320)
Bills -2.5 (-215): Backing the Bills in Orchard Park has been borderline automatic recently.
Buffalo is 14-1 at home since the start of the 2024-25 season, winning those games by an average of 12.4 points and playing to a +6.0 margin ATS.
Its only loss at Highmark Stadium in that span was to the New England Patriots in Week 5, which doesn't seem that bad considering how Mike Vrabel's team is playing.
And for what it's worth, New England also beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay.
The Bills are averaging 30.2 PPG at home and should light up the scoreboard once again. A healthy Buccaneers team could probably keep pace, but Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin are all out.
I think Buffalo is primed to deliver a good ol' fashioned beatdown.
-> Bet on Josh Allen to win the MVP
NFL parlay predictions
Allen anytime TD scorer (-121): Allen is calling his own number at a ridiculous rate.
Just look at the difference in rushing numbers between his first nine games last year — when he won the MVP, mind you — to his first nine games this year.
- 2024: 47 rushes (14 in red zone), 211 yards, 3 TDs
- 2025: 59 rushes (17 in red zone), 311 yards, 7 TDs
Allen ripped off another nine rushing touchdowns last season from Week 10 onward and has scored in 11 of his past 20 games as a result.
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He didn't find the end zone last week, but he had a pair of rushing scores in the two games before that.
Tampa Bay's run defence is strong, and Vita Vea makes it difficult for RBs to produce between the tackles. I can see Allen taking matters into his own hands and scampering for a score.
Mayfield 200+ passing yards (-150): If Buffalo builds a big lead, as I suspect, Mayfield should cruise past this total.
The veteran QB is averaging 243.5 passing yards and is 7-2 against this line.
He is missing a pair of elite receivers, but still has standout rookie Emeka Egbuka, trusty tight end Cade Otton, and dynamic pass-catching back Rachaad White.
WR Tez Johnson, a 2025 fifth-round pick, is also in a nice groove.
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The risk here is that Tampa establishes the run against a Buffalo defence that struggles to stop it. That could reduce Mayfield's necessity to throw.
But if that happens, I'm not confident the Bills are doing what it takes to cover the spread anyway.
Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions made at 2:30 p.m. ET 11/14/2025.
