The No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers face the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide on New Year's Day in the Rose Bowl.
The pregame narrative: Indiana isn't the Cinderella story many deemed it to be last year, evidenced by its standing as a 7-point favourite in the "Granddaddy of Them All." The unbeaten Hoosiers are led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has 33 TD passes in 13 games.
Check out my Alabama vs. Indiana predictions in this +460 same-game parlay, featuring Omar Cooper and Germie Bernard.
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Alabama vs. Indiana predictions
Parlay: Indiana -2.5 | Cooper anytime TD | Bernard 40+ rec. yards (+460)
Indiana -2.5 (-225): It's easy to criticize Indiana's strength of schedule in comparison to most SEC schools — Alabama included — but the Hoosiers handled their business all season.
And in three legitimately difficult matchups, the Hoosiers covered this number each time:
- Sept. 27 at Iowa: 20-15 win (9-point favourites)
- Oct. 11 at Oregon: 30-20 win (7-point underdogs)
- Dec. 6 vs. Ohio State, neutral site: 13-10 win (3-point underdogs)
Beating then-No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship stamped Indiana's status as a legit contender. It's a far more well-rounded team than Alabama, and that should make all the difference.
The Crimson Tide have had a dreadful run game all year, ranking 131st in success rate ... out of 136 NCAA Division I programs, per Game On Paper.
Bama put up 27 offensive points on the road against a strong Oklahoma defence in the first round of the College Football Playoff, which is impressive. But the team only had 28 rushing yards on 25 carries.
Indiana racked up five sacks against Ohio State in the conference title game. If the Hoosiers can pin their ears back, it'll be a long day for Alabama.
The Hoosiers' +31.5 average point differential is the second-best in the country.
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Crimson Tide vs. Hoosiers SGP picks
Cooper anytime TD (+155): Cooper exited in the first quarter of the Big Ten title game with an ankle injury and didn't return.
But after more than three weeks of rest, he's reportedly expected to be fully available at the Rose Bowl.
That's great news for the Hoosiers, given that Cooper paces the team in receptions (58) and receiving yards (804) this season.
Mendoza is down to link up with Cooper anywhere on the field, but they tend to find each other in the scoring area. Before Cooper's injury-shortened game, he'd scored a touchdown in four straight.
-> Bet on Omar Cooper vs. No. 9 Alabama
On the season, Cooper has cashed this prop in nine of 13 games.
In terms of success rate, Alabama's defence ranks better against the run (23rd) than against the pass (t-36th). Indiana should remain pass-happy near the goal line.
Bernard 40+ receiving yards (-225): I'm sure Alabama will try to establish the run, but I don't expect that to go well. And when the Tide drop back, Bernard is often the first read for QB Ty Simpson.
- Bernard has 60 catches for 802 yards this season, which works out to 61.7 yards/game.
- The senior wideout has 20+ yards in 13 of 13 games. He is 10-3 vs. this yardage milestone.
-> Don't miss out — Bet on the CFP quarterfinals!
Oklahoma did a nice job slowing Bernard down in the first round of the CFP, holding him to three targets. But to his credit, he caught all three and tallied 40 yards.
Before that matchup, Bernard averaged 11.0 targets over a five-game stretch. He'll need to be a factor if Alabama is going to advance.
Alabama vs. Indiana predictions made at 1:52 p.m. ET on Dec. 30, 2025.
