A heavyweight NBA matchup takes place in Minnesota on Saturday when the Timberwolves host the Denver Nuggets.
The pregame narrative: Denver has been nothing short of elite this season, and catches a strong Minnesota team playing on a back-to-back. The T-Wolves are slim home favourites and look to avenge a road loss to the Nuggets back in October.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Nov. 15.
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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SGP
Parlay: Nuggets moneyline | Murray 20+ points | Edwards 3+ threes (+310)
Nuggets moneyline (+114): Nikola Jokic (wrist) is questionable to play tonight. Needless to say, his status impacts my confidence in this wager.
But if the big man suits up, I think the Nuggets should roll to a victory.
Denver is a cut above Minnesota in just about every aspect. It ranks second in both offensive and defensive rating, and is second in net rating (+13.3), right behind the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That +13.3 rating, if it holds, would be third all-time behind the 1995-96 Bulls and OKC.
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The Nuggets have won six straight games and already thrashed the. T-Wolves earlier this year.
Minnesota is 8-4, but seven of those wins are against bottom-10 teams in the league (Pacers, Nets, Hornets, Jazz twice, Kings twice).
NBA SGP legs
Murray 20+ points (-186): Murray dropped a season-high 43 points against the T-Wolves in October, largely by exploiting their awful mid-range defence.
Even if you took away all five of his 3s and six of his free throws, he still cleared this number.
Minnesota is allowing opponents to shoot 43.8% from the mid-range, which ranks 20th, according to Cleaning the Glass.
-> Bet on Jamal Murray on Saturday night
The Canadian loves to work from that area of the court, and is averaging a career-high 17.0 field-goal attempts per game.
Edwards 3+ threes (-315): Backing Edwards to reach this milestone feels like a safe way to close out the wager. And it gives us a nice boost thanks to some negative correlation.
The sixth-year guard is coming off a rare 1-for-7 game from deep. You can bet on a regression to the mean tonight.
- Before Friday, Edwards led the league in 3s per game (4.1) while shooting 50.0% from deep.
- Last season, Edwards averaged 4.1 makes on 39.5% shooting.
- This year, Edwards has 3+ threes in six of seven games where he's played 5+ minutes.
Edwards wasn't in the lineup against Denver earlier this year, but is 4-0 against this line when he plays the Nuggets while averaging 5.0 threes.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SGP made at 12 p.m. ET 11/15/2025.
