There are five NBA games on Saturday. Chet Holmgren and Luka Doncic headline my prop predictions.
Today's NBA props narrative: Holmgren is part of an Oklahoma City Thunder squad which is decimating opponents left and right. I like his chances of contributing from deep. Elsewhere, Doncic should be productive as a passer on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 15, featuring a fade on Ja Morant.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 15
Best bet: Holmgren 2+ threes (+125)
Holmgren isn't a huge 3-point shooter, but these odds are too good to pass up.
- He is averaging a career-high 1.6 threes per night on a respectable 37.8% shooting.
- Holmgren is 4-5 against this line, but plays a Charlotte squad last in 3-point defence (40.9%).
The lanky forward stands at 7-foot-1 with an even longer wingspan. That makes his jumpers hard to defend, and I can't see anyone on the undersized Hornets contesting him at the perimeter.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is equal to Holmgren in height, but he's primarily an interior defender and didn't play last night, so there's no guarantee he'll be in the lineup today.
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On top of that, Lu Dort (shoulder) is questionable, and Aaron Wiggins (thigh) is out. Those two combined for 3.8 threes per night.
Key stat: Charlotte is allowing 2.46 threes per game to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Best NBA picks
Doncic over 8.5 assists (-110): Doncic is in MVP form. The Slovenian is averaging 33.7 points, 8.9 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
He had a relatively quiet night on Friday, scoring just 24 points on 6-of-12 shooting. But he did add 12 helpers in the victory, and is now 4-2 against this line in November.
Doncic has had at least seven assists in every game this month, which gives us a reliable floor to work with.
-> Bet on Luka Doncic & the Lakers
I'm not worried about him taking a step back on no rest, even with him playing 40 minutes yesterday.
The point guard is in the best shape of his career, and was productive on the second leg of back-to-backs last year. He averaged 8.9 assists on no rest, compared to 7.4 assists on one day of rest and 6.7 assists with two days off.
The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing the ninth-most APG to opposing PGs.
NBA player prop predictions
Morant under 21.5 points (-132): Long gone are the days of Morant averaging north of 25 points a night.
- The point guard has seen a drop in scoring in four straight seasons from his 27.4 PPG average in 2021-22.
- He's netting just 18.9 PPG this year while shooting 35.2% from the field and 16.7% from deep.
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Morant has gone under this mark in six straight games, and is shooting an absymal 28.7% in November. I really don't understand why this line is so high.
The Memphis Grizzlies battle the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, which is no easy matchup.
Cleveland gives up the fewest PPG to opposing PGs.
NBA prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 15, 2025.
