Cooper Flagg is still the odds-on favourite to win NBA Rookie of the Year, and he doesn't need high volume as a 3-point shooter to stay in that spot.
Today's NBA props narrative: I'm fading Flagg's 3s prop on Sunday evening as one of my three NBA prop bets. Elsewhere, Nic Claxton should take advantage of arguably the best possible matchup available to him.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 16, featuring Franz Wagner.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 16
Best bet: Flagg under 1.5 threes (-136)
I think Flagg will score his fair share of points tonight. I just don't think they'll be from outside.
Flagg and the Mavericks face the Portland Trail Blazers, who typically don't let opponents thrive from 3-point land.
Portland allows the second-fewest 3-point attempts (33.0/game) and the third-fewest makes (11.6/game).
Where the Blazers typically get gashed is in the midrange, which happens to be where Flagg thrives.
-> Bet on tonight's five-game NBA slate
- According to Cleaning The Glass, Portland allows the third-highest FG% from all midrange shots (48.5%).
- Flagg attempts 40.0% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 87th percentile in the NBA.
If Flagg was on a heater from beyond the arc, fading him at 1.5 threes might give me pause. But he's shooting 26.9% on 4.0 attempts per game this season, so he's better off trying to score from inside.
And based on how Portland sets up its defence, Flagg is better suited to get buckets inside the arc anyway.
Key stat: This under is 8-5 on the season, cashing in five of Flagg's past six games.
Best NBA picks
Wagner over 1.5 threes (-130): With Paolo Banchero set to miss his second consecutive game, I'll gladly pay some extra vig for a line this low.
- Last time out (with Banchero on the sidelines), Wagner shot 3-of-9 from 3-point range.
- In 21 games sans-Banchero since the start of last season, Wagner has averaged 6.7 attempted 3s and is 12-9 vs. this line.
-> Bet on Franz Wagner in Magic vs. Rockets
Desmond Bane hasn't panned out yet as a long-range assassin for the Magic. Wagner, who's shooting 35.5% from deep so far this season, has surprisingly been the more reliable shooter between the two of them.
Both should have an opportunity to produce against the Houston Rockets, who allow the fourth-most attempted 3s per game (39.8).
Wagner is 8-5 vs. this prop and should land on the winning side again tonight.
NBA player prop predictions
Claxton over 24.5 points/rebounds (-132): Claxton has taken a step up as a scorer this year and a step back as a rebounder. But I like his chances to excel in both statistical categories tonight.
Here's how opposing centres have fared against the Washington Wizards so far this year, per Fantasy Pros:
- 4th in PPG (25.77)
- 1st in RPG (18.42)
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Claxton is averaging a career-best 15.0 PPG on a career-high 9.7 field goal attempts.
As a rebounder, his 6.9 RPG average is his lowest since the 2021-22 season. But the ineptitude of the Wizards should help.
Claxton is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight games, averaging a combined 24.9 points/rebounds.
NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on Nov. 16, 2025.
