Patrick Mahomes is one of Sunday's NFL prop targets as his Kansas City Chiefs prepare to face the Denver Broncos.
The pregame narrative: Denver has been nasty on defence, especially against opposing passers. I'm fading Mahomes while looking for solid production out of a pair of running backs.
Check out my top NFL Week 11 prop bets, featuring predictions on Blake Corum and Jaylen Warren.
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NFL Week 11 prop bets
Best bet: Corum over 29.5 rushing yards (-117)
I'm not ready to say the Los Angeles Rams' backfield is a true timeshare, but Corum has become a lot more involved than the average RB2 over the past few weeks.
- at Jaguars (Week 7): 12 carries, 37 yards
- vs. Saints (Week 9): 13 carries, 58 yards
- at 49ers (Week 10): 13 carries, 56 yards
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In that span, Williams out-carried Corum, 51-38 ... but the hand-off discrepancy had been 95-29 in the weeks before that.
Williams is still well ahead of Corum in total snaps, mind you. But that doesn't matter given that the carry counts are drawing so close together.
When Corum is on the field, there's a good chance the Rams are giving him the ball.
Seattle's run defence is among the best in the league, ranking third in yards per attempt and first in EPA per rush.
I'm not sure either Williams or Corum will have a huge day, but I expect the carries to be split evenly enough for the latter to get over this yardage number.
Blake Corum coming on.
— J.B. Long (@JB_Long) November 13, 2025
18% of his carries this season have gained 10+ yards, the highest percentage of any qualifying back (min. 50) according to NFL Research. pic.twitter.com/NlLRxJSYVl
Corum, a national champion with Michigan in 2023, has earned his boosted workload. I don't see any reason why that would go away now.
Key stat: Corum has handled at least five carries in seven games this season, and he's averaging 41.7 yards in those matchups.
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Best NFL picks
Mahomes under 1.5 passing TDs (+115): It's been a feast-or-famine situation for Mahomes' passing touchdown volume in 2025.
The two-time MVP, who has crested the 40-touchdown threshold twice, currently has 17 TDs through nine starts.
Mahomes has three or more passing TDs in four games ... and he has one or zero passing TDs in the other five.
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That makes this under 5-4 so far, and I think it'll cash again in a daunting road matchup against the Denver Broncos.
- Denver's pass defence ranks No. 1 in success rate and No. 2 in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com.
- Through 10 games, the Broncos have only allowed eight passing TDs (No. 1 in the NFL).
Dating back to the 2023 season, Mahomes has gone under 1.5 passing TDs in three straight matchups vs. Denver.
Warren over 100.5 rushing/receiving yards (-118): The Cincinnati Bengals are a gift to running backs far and wide. This week, it's Warren's turn to reap the rewards.
Cincinnati have allowed 1,669 scrimmage yards to opposing running backs this year, which easily the most in the NFL. The closest team is the Dolphins (1,518 scrimmage yards to RBs), but they haven't had a bye week yet.
On a per game basis, the Bengals are coughing up 185.4 scrimmage yards to running backs.
Warren knows all about this, as his best game of the year — by far — came against Cincy last month. He rushed for 127 yards on 16 carries and added 31 receiving yards on four catches.
Though he's only gone over 96.5 rushing/receiving yards one other time this year, Warren should be able to thrive in this matchup once again.
NFL prop bets made at 2:39 p.m. ET on 11/13/2025.
