Rashee Rice has scored in all three games since returning from his suspension, and I'm backing him at a plus-money price to keep that streak alive in Week 11.
The pregame narrative: Rice and the Kansas City Chiefs face the vaunted Denver Broncos defence in the 4 p.m. window. KC is funnelling the ball to its top playmaker, and that should continue. Earlier on, look for Sean Tucker to take advantage of the Buffalo Bills' suspect run defence.
Check out my top NFL Week 11 TD picks for Sunday, Nov. 16, featuring Zach Charbonnet.
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NFL Week 11 TD picks
Best bet: Tucker to score (+180)
Bucky Irving, who hasn't suited up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers since Week 4, returned to practice in limited fashion this week. He's expected to remain out, though, leaving Tucker and Rachaad White to man the backfield.
White remains the lead back, but only because of his pass-catching work. In terms of handoffs, things have levelled out.
From Weeks 5-7, Tucker only had 10 total carries. White had 41.
But in Tampa's past two games, White's carry advantage is only 23-21.
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On two fewer carries in those two recent games, Tucker has out-gained White by 22 yards. The Bucs clearly like White as a receiving option, but they shouldn't stop handing Tucker the rock.
With that in mind, Sunday's matchup against Buffalo is a very compelling one at this price point.
Buffalo's defence ranks 31st in rushing yards per attempt (5.5) and rushing TDs (14).
The Bills have allowed at least one rushing TD in seven straight games, with multiple rushing TDs allowed in four of those.
Key stat: Tampa Bay didn't have any red zone rushes last time out, but in its previous game, Tucker had three carries inside the five-yard line (and he scored on one of them).
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NFL Week 11
Charbonnet to score (+150): Charbonnet is in a very even timeshare with Kenneth Walker in Seattle. But around the goal line, Charbonnet looks like an RB1.
Since Week 4, Charbonnet has 11 carries and a target inside the 10-yard line. He converted those touches into five TDs.
In the same span, Walker has six carries and zero targets inside the 10 — turning that into zero TDs.
-> Bet on Seahawks vs. Rams prop markets
Although Walker has more carries overall and has been a more efficient runner, it's clear that he's not the main guy in the scoring area.
Inside the 10-yard line, Seattle has had 27 run plays and 13 pass plays this season. The Los Angeles Rams have a strong defence, but I'm investing in the opportunity I expect Charbonnet to see in goal-to-go situations.
Rice to score (+116): Get the ball into Rice's hands and watch what he does with it.
After missing the first six weeks due to a suspension, Rice has fallen right back into a favourable spot in the Chiefs' top-10 offence.
In three games, he has ...
- 26 targets
- 5 targets inside the 10-yard line
- 2 carries inside the 10-yard line
With all of those looks, Rice has posted 233 scrimmage yards and four TDs. He's 3-0 vs. this prop.
The Denver Broncos have one of the best defences in the NFL, but the Chiefs are in an offensive rhythm after a slow-ish start.
Rice has as good a chance as any KC player to score at Mile High on Sunday.
NFL TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 11/14/2025.
