Felix Auger-Aliassime battles the No. 1 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz, at the ATP Finals semis.
The pregame narrative: Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime both enter this match playing excellent tennis. The former is a perfect 3-0 in tournament play, while the latter has won back-to-back matches after dropping his first. The winner of this contest earns a spot in the ATP Finals final.
Check out my Alcaraz vs. Aliassime ATP Finals best bet below.
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ATP Finals odds
Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime best bet
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime under 9.5 games won (+102)
There was a time when Auger-Aliassime dominated this matchup.
In a stretch from September 2021 to October 2022, Auger-Aliassime won all three meetings between the tennis stars. He didn't just scrape by Alcaraz, either; he won convincingly:
- 6-3, 3-1, ret. at the US Open (2021)
- 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 at the 2022 Davis Cup
- 6-3, 6-2 at the 2022 Swiss Indoors Basel
Though this impressive run was just a few years ago, it may as well be a lifetime considering recent results.
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This matchup has been all Alcaraz since 2023. The two have met four times across this time, and the Spaniard has won each battle.
Two of their outings were on clay, and the other two were on the hardcourts. Naturally, I put more stock in the hardcourt wins when capping this match, considering that it is the surface for the ATP Finals.
Those two contests weren't very close, with Alcaraz largely blowing by Auger-Aliassime:
- 6-4, 6-4 win at the 2023 Indian Wells Open
- 6-2, 6-3 win at the 2024 Indian Wells Open
Both of these players are extraordinary servers, but Auger-Aliassime's inability to convert breaks in the return game gives him a small margin for error.
Alcaraz's serve is in elite form, and his return skills are otherworldly. It will be very difficult for Auger-Aliassime to cover this number if Alcaraz can earn a couple of breaks.
Key stat: Alcaraz has 11 aces to just two double faults across his last two matches.
Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime best bet made at 9:51 a.m. on 11/15/2025.
