Saturday night's matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors doesn't carry as much cachet as usual, but it still has some worthy targets in the prop market.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Luka Doncic and Steph Curry are both out, but in their absences, I'm expecting big things from Austin Reaves and Moses Moody. Reaves is only two games removed from a lengthy injury absence of his own, but he balled out on Thursday.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 7, including a prediction on the Utah Jazz's new centre, Jaren Jackson Jr.
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NBA prop picks Feb. 7
Best bet: Reaves over 23.5 points (-118)
Reaves just returned to the Lakers' lineup this week after a 19-game absence for a calf injury. He's still ramping up and won't see his typical minutes workload tonight.
But this line accounts for that, given that Reaves is averaging 26.5 PPG on the season. And I love his chances of cashing the over based on these factors:
- He just went off in limited action on Thursday. Coming off the bench in just his second game back, Reaves went nuclear against the 76ers. He finished with 35 points on 12-of-17 shooting in just 25 minutes.
- No Doncic, no problem. Doncic sustained a hamstring injury in L.A.'s last game and will be out tonight. In six games without the NBA's leading scorer this season, Reaves is 5-1 vs. this prop while averaging 36.2 PPG.
- The Warriors aren't a daunting matchup. Over their past 15 games, the Warriors rank a pedestrian 13th in defensive rating. And for the season as a whole, they're allowing the seventh-most points to opposing shooting guards.
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Reaves saw 20 minutes in his return to action and then 25 two nights ago. If he pushes for anything near 30 tonight, I think he's got an awesome chance of hitting this over.
The Lakers are -2.5 home favourites, and a close game would likely help Reaves stay on the court.
Key stat: Reaves has averaged 24.4 PPG vs. Golden State in five matchups since the start of last season, going 3-2 vs. this prop (and scoring 23 points in one of the unders).
Best NBA picks
Moody over 2.5 threes (-118): This is a pretty fair price for Moody, who's averaging 2.4 made 3s on impressive 40.4% shooting from deep.
I like the over because Moody has been on a heater recently and should be encouraged to continue firing with Curry out.
- In his past 12 games, Moody is canning 3.5 threes on 6.9 attempts (50.6%).
- He is 9-3 vs. this prop in that span.
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Moody has played 13 games without Curry this year and is averaging 6.4 attempted 3s in those games. Curry's absence, combined with Moody's hot streak, should lead to some solid volume.
The Lakers are allowing the eighth-highest opponent 3PT% (36.7).
NBA player prop predictions
Jackson over 15.5 points (-112): Jackson is set to make his Jazz debut tonight after Utah shelled out a bunch of picks and players to acquire him.
He's not expected to be the team's primary scorer, but this is a point total I think he should be clearing most nights.
- Jackson is averaging 19.2 PPG this season. It's his fourth consecutive year averaging north of 18.0 PPG.
- He went 11-1 vs. this scoring prop in his final 12 games with the Memphis Grizzlies.
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Jackson will face the Orlando Magic, a team he just battled twice in mid-January. In those games, Jackson scored 47 total points and went 2-0 vs. this prop.
NBA prop picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on Feb. 7, 2026.
