Dylan Harper is heating up for the San Antonio Spurs, and he's got my attention in Thursday's all-Texas tussle against the Dallas Mavericks.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Harper comes off the bench for a Spurs team with a glut of guard talent, but he still gets plenty of minutes. And with the way he's shooting right now, that shouldn't change.
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Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 5, featuring predictions on Paolo Banchero and Moses Moody.
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NBA prop picks Feb. 5
Best bet: Banchero over 4.5 assists (+112)
There's some blowout potential in tonight's matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic, which does pose a bit of a risk for Banchero.
But I'm a big fan of the matchup and the price, so I'm willing to take the plunge.
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Against the Brooklyn Nets, Banchero is certainly capable of doing a lot with a little.
- Brooklyn allows the sixth-most assists per game (27.6) and the highest opponent FG% (49.4).
- The Nets play at the second-slowest pace, but they are among the least efficient defences in the NBA (fifth-worst defensive rating).
The hope will simply be that Banchero's minutes aren't slashed too severely. But given that he's averaging 4.8 assists this season, this feels like a very worthy flier.
Key stat: Dating back to the 2022-23 season, Banchero is 5-2 vs. this prop when facing the Nets. That includes a six-assist performance against them last month.
Best NBA picks
Moody under 14.5 points (-121): With Steph Curry ruled out for the Golden State Warriors, you might expect Moody to help pick up the slack from 3-point range.
No doubt he'll try, but I think this is a great spot to fade the fifth-year shooting guard.
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- Moody was bottled up by the Phoenix Suns when he last faced them in a home-and-home on Dec. 18 and 20. He finished with just eight combined points on 3-for-14 shooting across those two games.
- In 12 games without Curry this season, Moody has hit this under 11 times. He's averaging 11.3 PPG in those matchups.
The Suns allow the third-lowest opponent 3PT% (34.6) and the fourth-fewest made 3s per game.
Moody takes roughly two-thirds of his shots from deep, so he should be in a tough spot on the road tonight in Phoenix.
NBA player prop predictions
Harper over 9.5 points (-107): I'm pleasantly surprised to see Harper's points prop is still set at 9.5 points, which is an over I touted a few days ago.
Back on Sunday, Harper crushed this line by scoring 15 points on 6-of-12 shooting off the bench for the Spurs.
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That marked Harper's third consecutive game with at least 15 points on 50.0% or better shooting. It's no coincidence that it was also his third straight game with 22-plus minutes (for the first time since Dec. 3-8).
San Antonio's No. 2 overall draft pick is shooting well right now and earning his extended run.
He's averaging 10.7 PPG and scored 15 points against the Mavericks when they played on opening night.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Feb. 5, 2026.
