For NFL Week 16 upset picks, I'm targeting a pair of home underdogs in divisional matchups.
The pregame narrative: On Saturday night, the Chicago Bears should get revenge on the Green Bay Packers, who had the league's worst injury luck in Week 15. Sticking with the NFC, look for the Carolina Panthers to pounce on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home.
Check out my top NFL Week 16 upset picks for Dec. 20-21.
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NFL Week 16 upset picks
Best bet: Bears moneyline (+106)
I understand that this isn't a particularly bold underdog pick. But we're still on the proper side of plus money, and the case for the Bears looks compelling to me.
- After playing (and winning) at home on Sunday, Chicago will stay home on a short week.
- Green Bay suffered a seismic loss over the weekend in Denver, as edge rusher Micah Parsons is believed to have sustained a season-ending knee injury. Green Bay also had its best available safety (Evan Williams), offensive lineman (Zach Tom) and receiver (Christian Watson) leave the game due to injury.
- Since Week 3, Chicago is 5-0 at home with a +64 point differential.
When these teams matched up two weeks ago in Green Bay, they were tied with under five minutes to play before the Packers scored the go-ahead touchdown.
Watson was huge in that game, posting 89 receiving yards and two scores. I'm skeptical that he'll play in the rematch, though his status won't be determined until later in the week.
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Either way, massive losses are stacking up on the Packers' roster (none more so than Parsons). Against a talented Bears team, that certainly matters.
Losing in Green Bay is the Bears' only blemish since Week 8. Chicago is healthier and should be better rested for this one.
Key stat: Chicago is 5-3 straight up as an underdog. According to Team Rankings, that's the second-most underdog wins in the NFL.
NFL underdog prediction
Panthers moneyline (+123): The last time the Panthers played at home, they pulled off one of the most stunning upsets of the season, winning by three points over the now-NFC-leading Los Angeles Rams.
Carolina is 6-5 SU as an underdog, sporting wins over the Rams, Packers (on the road) and Cowboys along the way.
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The Panthers and Buccaneers play twice in the final three weeks to decide the NFC South title. The stakes are high, and Tampa is expected to come out on top (evidenced by the Bucs' -360 division odds).
That doesn't mean a slumping Tampa team will go into Charlotte and get a win, though.
- Tampa Bay just blew a two-score, fourth-quarter lead — at home — against the dreadful Falcons.
- Since Week 10, the Bucs are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS.
- For what it's worth, Carolina went 2-0 vs. Atlanta with a +33 point differential this year.
The Panthers lost at home to Tampa last year, but the game was decided on a field goal in overtime (and Carolina covered a +6.5 spread).
NFL upset picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on Dec. 15, 2025.
