It's only January, but UFC 324's main event between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett has the potential to be the fight of the year.
The pre-fight narrative: Gaethje and Pimblett battle for the interim lightweight championship with Ilia Topuria on leave for the foreseeable future. Pimblett, who has won nine in a row and is unbeaten in the UFC, is a -245 favourite to win.
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Check out my UFC 324 predictions for the Jan. 24 event in Las Vegas, featuring a betting pick on Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong.
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UFC 324 predictions
Best bet: Gaethje vs. Pimblett over 2.5 rounds (-127)
Both fighters have devastating finishing power, and the odds indicate this one won't go the distance (-278 to finish inside five rounds).
Just take a look at their respective resumes, and you can understand why:
- Gaethje (26-5 MMA record): 20 KOs, 1 SUBs, 67% finish rate
- Pimblett (26-3 MMA record): 7 KOs, 10 SUBs, 58% finish rate
But that cuts both ways. Gaethje and Pimblett should spend the majority of the first round in a feeling-out process, giving respect to each other's abilities.
I expect bombs to be thrown eventually, and even then, for each fighter to battle through it.
-> Check out full Gaethje vs. Pimblett betting markets
Gaethje is tough as nails and has never been knocked out inside of 2.5 rounds in his MMA career. The American is also more of a kickboxer by nature, which will help him keep distance from Pimblett's takedowns.
I lean toward Gaethje pulling off an upset for those reasons, but will stay away from picking a winner.
Pimblett started his UFC career with four straight first-round finishes against low-level competition. Since then, he's gone over this mark in three of his last five, with two fights going to the scorer's table.
The Liverpool native has also never been knocked out and has the chin to absorb Gaethje's attack.
Key stat: Each fighter has gone over this mark in three of their last four fights.
Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong UFC prediction
Fight to not go the distance (+145): These are two of the best strikers the UFC has to offer, with contrasting styles.
O'Malley has the reach and accuracy to chip away at Yadong, while Yadong would like to get in close and land a flurry of punches on the American.
I'm not sure which style will win out, but expect someone to take a bunch of damage and get put out.
Yadong will probably want to force the issue, given O'Malley's status as a favourite and ability to dictate the pace with his reach.
That could work in his favour, or it could set up O'Malley for another highlight-reel KO.
- 73% of O'Malley's UFC fights have ended inside
- 55% of Yadong's UFC fights have ended inside
UFC 324 preliminary card best bet
Nurmagomedov to win by decision (-121): Nurmagomedov is next up in a long line of Dagestani fighters looking for UFC gold. He had a chance at UFC 311, but lost via decision to Merab Dvalishvili.
Umar bounced back quickly with a win over Mario Bautista and now faces Deiveson Figueiredo, who's in the twilight of his career with two losses in his last three fights.
The 38-year-old Brazilian is a massive underdog and is basically being thrown to the wolves on Saturday.
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Picking Nurmagomedov to win via finish might seem sensible, but I think this will go to the scorer's table.
Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion with only three KO/Sub losses in 31 fights. One of them was after tearing his ACL during a fairly routine leg lock, and the other was due to a doctor's stoppage.
No one wants to wrestle with a Dagestani, but Figueiredo's black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu isn't anything to scoff at, either.
Four of Nurmagomedov's last five wins have been via decision.
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UFC 324 predictions made at 2 p.m. ET on Jan. 22, 2026
