Rising Canadian star Victoria Mboko can punch her fourth-round ticket at the Australian Open with a win on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Mboko has never advanced past the third round at a slam, and she is a -200 favourite over Clara Tauson. I think there's value backing Mboko to win in straight sets. The same can be said for Taylor Fritz, who faces 40-year-old Stan Wawrinka on the men's side.
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Check out my top Australian Open third-round picks for Jan. 22 and 23 at Melbourne Park, featuring a pick on Tomas Machac.
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Australian Open third-round picks
Best bet: Fritz -2.5 sets (-137)
Wawrinka won the Australian Open in 2014 as part of a three-year tear where he also won the U.S. Open (2015) and French Open (2016) and was ranked ATP No. 3.
But that was a long time ago.
The Swissman has barely played since 2020, posting a 37-44 record over the last two seasons. And hardly any of those matches were contested on the ATP tour.
-> Check out the third-round Australian Open schedule
I have to give Wawrinka his flowers for getting to this point and triumphing in an epic five-set battle against Arthur Gea on Thursday.
It's a good story, and an unlikely one, but Fritz should demolish the veteran in 40-degree heat with much less playing time under his belt.
Fritz has played 5:00 so far, needing 1:58 to get past his second-round opponent, Vit Kopriva. Wawrinka has played 7:53 and needed 4:33 to win his match against Gea.
Key stat: Fritz has won seven of his last nine five-set matches against opponents outside of the ATP top 100 in straight sets.
Victoria Mboko Australian Open prediction
Mboko -1.5 sets (+128): Mboko put herself on the map last year by winning a WTA 1000 title in Montreal and the WTA 250 title in Hong Kong. Now, the 19-year-old has grand slam expectations.
-> Bet on Canadian Victoria Mboko at the Australian Open!
The Canadian has started 2026 off hot, advancing to the final at the Adelaide International before picking up two straight-set wins to begin this tournament.
She is now 54-10 on hard courts since the start of last season.
Mboko has forced an incredible 20 break points at the Australian Open so far, converting nine of them.
Tauson ranks 71st on the WTA in service games won this year (60.0%), so it's likely Mboko will continue applying pressure on her return games.
The Dane went winless in Brisbane and Adelaide, the latter of which was a walkover after Tauson lost the first set, and needed three sets to win her second-round match at this event.
I trust the in-form Canadian to get the job done, and quickly.
Australian Open pick: Musetti vs. Machac best bet
Machac to win (+143): Machac is red-hot right now. He won the Adelaide International last week while dropping only two sets and just beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in a nail-biter.
-> Bet on Machac in the third round of the Australian Open
Overall, the Czech is 7-1 in 2026, improving his hard-court record to 187-91 (67.2%).
Lorenzo Musetti, who is favoured over Machac in the third round, is more of a clay-court specialist himself, boasting a 65.77% win rate on that surface.
On hard courts, the Italian hasn't fared nearly as well, evidenced by his 55.4% win rate.
Machac has faced Musetti once before, on hard court in Marseille, and demolished him, 6-3, 6-2.
Australian Open third-round picks made at 10:30 a.m. on Jan. 22, 2026.
