The Australian Open fourth round is coming to an end, with several great matches starting Sunday evening ET and rolling through the morning.
The pregame narrative: Ben Shelton and Casper Ruud are locked into what should be an epic battle for the final men's quarterfinal spot. On the women's side, Elena Rybakina is a big favourite over Elise Mertens.
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Australian Open fourth-round predictions
Best bet: Shelton over 21.5 games won (-105)
This is my favourite way to back Shelton without paying -167 juice or taking his game spread.
I fully expect this match to go at least four sets, meaning Shelton will have plenty of opportunities to rack up games if he can stay hot on his service games.
The American has been on a tear this tournament, winning every set while only being broken twice. Check out his service game rankings among players with two-plus matches:
- 1st in second-serve won percentage (66%)
- 4th in aces per match (16.3)
- 6th in first-serve won percentage (81%)
Ruud is a better defensive player than Shelton, with a strong serve of his own. I expect the Norwegian will push Shelton deep into sets and probably nab one by securing a few key break points.
But ultimately, Shelton's wicked serve should be the deciding force in this match.
-> Check out the fourth-round Australian Open schedule
These two have battled three times, with Ruud winning the last two iterations.
The most recent battle fell Ruud's way 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 in 2024. Shelton is a much better player now, and I can't picture him losing three sets by enough games to fall under this mark.
Key stat: Shelton has gone over this game total in all five grand-slam matches vs. players 10-20 in the ATP rankings (Ruud is 13th).
Australian Open pick: Rybakina vs. Mertens best bet
Rybakina -5.5 (+132): Rybakina has been demolishing players left and right lately.
- The Kazakhstani is 2-1 against this line at the Australian Open, winning all three matches by at least five games.
- She also covered this line in two of three matches at the Brisbane Invitational and three of five matches at the 2025 WTA Finals en route to her first title.
- That includes a 6-3, 7-6 win over world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
-> Bet on Rybakina in the fourth round of the Australian Open
Mertens is on a great run of her own, but hasn't been tested against an elite player. The Belgian beat the WTA No. 131, 88, and 126th-ranked players this point.
Rybakina is 6-1 against Mertens, covering this spread in three of the last five matchups (and landing on a five-game win in one of the outliers.
-> See the latest betting lines for today's Australian Open matches!
Australian Open tennis predictions made at 2:30 p.m. on Jan. 25, 2026.
