Four of tennis' top stars, including World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz, are in action at the ATP Finals on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Alcaraz is a sizeable favourite over Taylor Fritz, as the duo meet for a fourth time this season. After that, a surging Alex de Minaur takes on Lorenzo Musetti, who snuck into the finals after Novak Djokovic withdrew with an injury.
Check out my top ATP Finals tennis predictions for Nov. 11 below.
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ATP Finals tennis predictions Nov. 11
Best Bet: de Minaur -1.5 sets (+110)
All of these players are great, but Musetti is a smidge below the rest, in my opinion.
The Italian finished ninth in the standings, just outside of the bubble, after losing to Novak Djokovic in the Hellenic Championship final. But Djokovic withdrew from the ATP Finals, so Musetti made it in on a technicality.
-> Bet on de Minaur vs. Musetti here
That loss to Djokovic, followed by a loss to Taylor Fritz in Monday's group-stage play, continued a concerning trend: Musetti has lost five straight matches to top-10 players while winning just two sets.
de Minaur is on top of his game right now and owns a stellar 31-11 hardcourt record this season.
The Australian is 14-5 in his last 19 matches, with three of those losses coming to either Jannik Sinner or Alcaraz. And of those 14 wins, 11 came in straight sets.
Musetti owns a 3-1 head-to-head record against de Minaur, but none of those wins came on this surface.
The Italian is a clay court specialist, and has an underwhelming 53.8% win rate on hardcourts, which is where de Minaur beat him.
Key stat: Musetti is 3-15 against top-10 ranked opponents on hardcourts, losing 14 of those matches in straight sets.
Alcaraz vs. Fritz best bet
Under 22.5 games (-121): I think Alcaraz will make quick work of Fritz on Tuesday.
The Spaniard has largely had the American's number, going 4-1 against him with the only loss coming at the Laver Cup in September.
-> Bet on Alcaraz vs. Fritz here
The World No. 1 wasn't at his best that day, firing just one ace while Fritz dominated baseline play.
Alcaraz got his revenge just 10 days later at the Japan Open, winning 6-4, 6-4. That tells me Fritz hasn't quite cracked the code.
And if you put the Laver Cup win aside, Fritz has largely struggled against the best of the best.
He is 2-19 against Alcaraz, Sinner and Novak Djokovic.
ATP Finals tennis predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 11/10/2025.
