The Kansas City Chiefs are playing for their postseason lives right now, as they host the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: KC's dynasty is on life support with the Chiefs sitting outside the playoff field in the final month of the season. A win at home over the Texans — who the Chiefs knocked out of the playoffs last year — would go a long way in keeping KC in the hunt.
Check out my Texans vs. Chiefs picks for Dec. 7, featuring a prop bet on Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud.
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Texans vs. Chiefs picks
Best Bet: Under 42 points (-109)
It'll be cold. The stakes are high. And two talented defences will be on the field.
This game has the makings of a low-scoring rock fight — just like last year's divisional round matchup.
Back in January, the Chiefs won a war of attrition, 23-14, in a game that featured just 548 total yards. The teams were a combined 3-for-8 on converting red zone trips into touchdowns.
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Both teams have carried strong defences into the 2025 season, with Houston looking like the best defence in the league.
- The Texans rank No. 1 in points allowed (16.5/game) and yards allowed (265.7/game).
- The Chiefs rank No. 7 in points allowed (19.3/game) and No. 9 in yards allowed (306.7/game).
- Both teams rank in the top four in the NFL in unders percentage. Collectively, unders are 16-7-1 in Houston and KC's games this year.
Sunday night's kickoff temperature is projected to be around -6 C and dropping. That's not extraordinary for Arrowhead Stadium in December, but it won't make passing any easier.
The under has cashed in four straight Chiefs home games, as well as four of Houston's six road games.
Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Houston's past five games and 6-1 in KC's past seven.
SNF prop prediction
Stroud over 0.5 interceptions (-121): In addition to a pair of defences I respect, I'm backing the under for Sunday Night Football in part because I have very little respect for Stroud in road games.
And an outdoor road game, especially.
In his career so far, Stroud is averaging 239.3 passing yards while posting a 64.1% completion rate and 93.2 passer rating. But his numbers drop off when he's either on the road or outdoors:
- Road (21 games): 213.0 yards/game, 62.3% completion rate, 86.0 passer rating.
- Outdoors (14 games): 199.4 yards/game, 59.8% completion rate, 84.2 passer rating.
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Poor passing numbers don't necessarily translate to interceptions, but Stroud's ineffectiveness in these environments means he should be more mistake-prone.
In a regular season game at Arrowhead last year, he threw two picks in a 27-19 loss. And this year, he has an interception in four of five road games (five INTs total in those games).
Texans vs. Chiefs picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET Dec. 6, 2025.
