The stakes are sky-high for the final Sunday Night Football game of the regular season, as the Baltimore Ravens battle the Pittsburgh Steelers for the AFC North title.
The pregame narrative: One team is walking away with a playoff berth, while the other is dusting off the golf clubs and beginning its offseason. The Ravens are road favourites despite losing at home to the Steelers four weeks ago.
Check out my Ravens vs. Steelers picks for Jan. 4, featuring a prop bet on Pittsburgh running back Kenneth Gainwell.
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Ravens vs. Steelers picks
Best Bet: Gainwell over 29.5 receiving yards (-118)
Everyone in the Steelers' offence struggled last week, as the team mustered just two field goals in a miserable loss against the Cleveland Browns.
It was a grim scene with DK Metcalf serving the first half of a two-game suspension. Without its most explosive playmaker, Pittsburgh looked lost.
Tonight's matchup is friendlier for the offence, though, and somebody is going to have to step up. My pick is Gainwell, who has been a productive pass-catcher throughout the back end of the season.
-> Bet on Kenneth Gainwell on Sunday Night Football
Check out Gainwell's per-game receiving numbers in his past seven games:
- 6.0 targets
- 5.1 catches
- 42.7 yards
- 25+ yards in six of seven
- 6+ targets in five of seven
That span includes Pittsburgh's Week 14 matchup in Baltimore. In that game, Gainwell caught six of seven targets for 27 yards.
Of course, that means he hit the under on this prop last time out against the Ravens. But if he sees that kind of target volume again, I'll take this over every time.
Gainwell is the 1B option in Pittsburgh's split backfield, but he is the alpha when it comes to pass-catching opportunities. Since Week 9, Jaylen Warren only has 18 targets; Gainwell has 50.
Key stat: The Ravens allow the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs (39.9/game).
SNF ATS prediction
Steelers +3.5 (-110): This game would be meaningless if Pittsburgh had beaten the lowly Browns last week ... but that didn't happen. And knowing Metcalf will sit out again is certainly not a positive for the Steelers.
But Mike Tomlin's crew has largely had the Ravens' number in recent history, covering this line in 10 of 12 matchups since the start of the 2020 season (including all five at home).
That includes a 27-22 win on Dec. 7 in Baltimore, where Pittsburgh was a +5.5 underdog.
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Since the outset of the 2020 season, Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 ATS as a home dog.
Hopefully, with another week of preparation in a Metcalf-less offence, the Steelers can find ways to move the ball and at least remain competitive at home vs. Baltimore.
Ravens vs. Steelers picks made at 12 p.m. ET Jan. 4, 2026.
