The AFC champion will be crowned at Mile High Stadium on Sunday, and it's looking like the New England Patriots will be back in the Super Bowl.
The pregame narrative: Drake Maye put up MVP numbers in his sophomore season and won't have to duel fellow 2024 first-round draftee Bo Nix, who broke his ankle late in the divisional round. As a result, the Broncos are 4.5-point home underdogs, tied for the largest in conference championship game history.
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Check out my Patriots vs. Broncos picks, featuring prop bets on Maye and Marvin Mims.
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Patriots vs. Broncos picks
SGP: Patriots moneyline | Maye 30+ rushing yards | Mims 3+ receptions (+320)
Patriots moneyline (-235): Is it "fair" that New England is on the doorstep of another Super Bowl appearance with Tom Brady's tenure not so far in the rearview?
Depends who you ask. I'm of the camp that it's a little annoying, especially given that the Patriots get to face career-long backup Jarrett Stidham in the AFC championship.
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But Stidham or not, I have to give the Patriots their flowers:
- New England is 15-1 since Week 4 with nine multi-score victories and a +203 point differential.
- The Pats are 9-3-1 ATS as a favourite, winning those games by an average of 14.5 points.
- Maye led the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%), passer rating (113.5), and rushing + passing yards per game (284.9).
Bottom line, this Patriots team is very good.
Denver did go 14-3 in the regular season, but it only had four multi-score wins. Walking the tight rope with Nix is one thing. Walking it with Stidham, who hasn't attempted a pass since 2023, is another.
Patriots vs. Broncos prop prediction
Maye 30+ rushing yards (-121): Maye hasn't been at his best this postseason, but he has faced two fierce defences (Chargers, Texans) and came out on top.
Denver is also elite, ranking top five in pass block win rate and run block win rate, per ESPN.com.
Nothing will come easy against the Broncos on the road, and I suspect Maye will have to use his legs to extend plays and rack up some yards.
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He isn't quite as big as Josh Allen, but he's pretty darn close at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. Allen rushed for 66 yards against Denver last week, and I trust Maye to get less than half of that this time around.
During the regular season and playoffs, Maye averaged 27.5 rushing yards per game.
AFC Championship SGP pick
Mims 3+ receptions (-132): If Denver is playing from behind, as I suspect, Stidham will have to throw the ball a lot more than Sean Payton would like.
Mims seems like a logical choice to rack up receptions.
- The speedy wideout has a shallow average depth of target at 9.2 yards (34th percentile, per Rotowire).
- Payton will want to get the ball out of Stidham's hands quickly, and Mims' YAC abilities could make him a big part of the game plan.
- The Patriots have allowed an 81.9 passer rating to opposing QBs, which ranks in the 19th percentile, according to RotoWire.
Additionally, Troy Franklin, who caught 65 passes for 709 yards this year, is questionable after suffering an ankle injury against Buffalo. Franklin has been a limited participant at practice all week and caught zero passes in Week 18 despite playing the whole game.
Mims caught all eight of his targets last week in Franklin's absence.
Patriots vs. Broncos picks made at 1 p.m. on Jan. 23, 2025.
