This week's Sunday Night Football matchup features all the drama, as Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Green Bay Packers.
The pregame narrative: Rodgers can become the fifth QB in NFL history to beat all 32 teams with a victory over his old squad. His Steelers are a slim 3-point home underdog, as they look to shake off a Week 7 divisional loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Check out my Packers vs. Steelers picks for Oct. 26, featuring a prop bet on Jaylen Warren.
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Packers vs. Steelers picks
Best Bet: Steelers over 21.5 points (-108)
Pittsburgh has eked its way into the playoffs over the last few seasons with an elite defence and a horrible offence.
So it's a bit of a surprise to see those roles reversed with a 41-year-old Rodgers at the helm.
- The Steelers are averaging 25.0 PPG (11th in the NFL) and sit eighth in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
- They had one stinker in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks, but have cleared this line in three of four games since, while landing on 21 in the outlier.
- Rodgers is slinging it, entering the week tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (14). That's just two shy of Russell Wilson's total output with the team from last season.
-> Bet on Rodgers against the Packers
Green Bay's defence is fearsome with Micah Parsons, no doubt, but I haven't been wholly impressed with that unit at the moment.
The Packers just gave up 23 points to the Jacoby Brissett-led Arizona Cardinals, and got 40-pieced by the Dallas Cowboys two weeks before that.
With an extra few days to prepare, I expect Pittsburgh to have devised a solid game plan.
Key stat: Pittsburgh is 4-2 against this line.
Sunday Night Football prop pick
Warren over 56.5 rushing yards (-114): Green Bay gives up the second-fewest rushing yards per game at the fourth-lowest yards per carry, so this is far from a great matchup for Warren.
But Pittsburgh loves to run the football and is very good at it.
The Steelers' offence ranks fourth in EPA per rush and eighth in rush success rate. Warren has really been able to get things going in the past two weeks behind a healthy offensive line.
- Week 6 vs. Browns: 11 carries for 52 yards (4.7 YPC)
- Week 7 @ Bengals: 16 carries for 127 yards (7.9 YPC)
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The sooner Arthur Smith and Co. realize that Warren, not Kenneth Gainwell, should get all the touches, the better. I'm hoping last week's outburst helps guide them to that rational conclusion.
Three of the last four starting RBs to face Green Bay have cleared this light line.
Packers vs. Steelers picks made at 3:35 p.m. ET 10/24/2025.
