Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals have their playoff lives on the line when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Cincinnati can still make the postseason if it wins out, while Baltimore would suffer a massive hit to its playoff probability with a loss. The Bengals have looked strong with Burrow and are worth backing as a home underdog.
Check out my top NFL Week 15 upset picks below, featuring a pick on the Detroit Lions.
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NFL Week 15 upset picks
Best bet: Bengals moneyline (+120)
I can't make much sense of this line.
The only thing separating Cincinnati from being firmly in the AFC wild-card hunt is a pair of late, uncharacteristic turnovers by Burrow against the Buffalo Bills
The Bengals aren't quite dead yet, and will have roughly a 29% chance of making the postseason if they win out, according to The Athletic.
So there's still plenty to play for.
Burrow threw for 284 yards and four TDs in last week's 39-34 loss, and I have no doubts about his form. With Ja'Marr Chase playing to his ceiling, the Bengals are capable of lighting up any team in the league.
We literally saw them put up 32 points in Baltimore on U.S. Thanksgiving two weeks ago with Tee Higgins sidelined.
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The Ravens are in a tailspin, having just lost at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Lamar Jackson having another quiet outing. These are his numbers since the start of November:
- 55.6 completion percentage
- 197.4 passing yards/game
- 25.4 rushing yards/game
- 2 passing TDs, 4 INTs
Quarterbacks win football games, and I can't trust a clearly banged-up Jackson right now.
Burrow, on the other hand, is slinging it and should put up another crooked number at home.
Key stat: Cincinnati has won eight of its last nine games when Burrow plays.
NFL underdog prediction
Lions moneyline (+215): Detroit plays its best ball indoors, and that's exactly where it'll be on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams.
SoFi Stadium is also often packed by opposing fans, so I'm not quite worried about Detroit facing road issues.
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I am worried about the Rams' talent, but think the Lions can go blow-for-blow with the NFC's top seed.
L.A. has won seven of its last eight games behind a top-five scoring offence and defence.
But Detroit paces the league in PPG (30.3) and just scored 44 points against the Cowboys' revamped defence in primetime. And the Lions are well-rested after that convincing Week 14 Thursday Night Football win.
Cracking the Rams' unit will be a much tougher task, but we've seen this matchup play out twice in the last two years, and the Lions won both meetings.
Dan Campbell's squad needs a win to keep pace in the NFC, and I think his squad will deliver.
NFL upset picks made at 4:35 p.m. ET on Dec. 9, 2025.
