Philip Rivers is on the cusp of an improbable return to the NFL, and he's one of three Sunday targets for Week 15.
The pregame narrative: It'd be a titanic ask by the Indianapolis Colts to have Rivers step in and handle the Seattle Seahawks' defence, but that seems to be where they're at. Elsewhere, Cam Ward has a very manageable yardage total on the road for the Tennessee Titans.
Check out my top NFL Week 15 prop bets, featuring a prediction on New York Giants receiver Wan'Dale Robinson.
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NFL Week 15 prop bets
Best bet: Ward over 191.5 passing yards (-115)
In some ways, Ward had a truly miserable stat line last week in Cleveland. He finished 14-of-28 passing for just 117 yards.
There were some positives, though, including a pair of touchdown passes and just one sack taken (which is notable whenever Myles Garrett is lurking). And his Titans got the win.
Ward is back on the road this Sunday, and I like his chances of being more effective through the air. The forecast and the matchup are in his favour.
According to The Weather Network, Sunday afternoon should be partly cloudy and about 15 °C in Santa Clara, California. Wind is expected to be low, as is the chance of precipitation.
As for the matchup, here are some notable rankings for the 49ers' pass defence:
- 25th in yards allowed
- 25th in net yards/attempt
- 25th in dropback success rate
- 27th in EPA/dropback
Ward, the No. 1 overall pick in this past year's draft, is 7-6 vs. this modest yardage total.
He's averaging 33.8 pass attempts per game and should be in lots of obvious passing situations against the 49ers, who are 13-point favourites.
I'm not expecting greatness here, but something in the realm of 200 yards should be attainable under the circumstances.
Key stat: Ward is 6-3 vs. this yardage prop in his past nine games, going 3-1 in matchups on the road.
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Best NFL picks
Rivers under 146.5 passing yards (-113): As difficult as it is to believe, 44-year-old Rivers fled the glue factory and is back in an NFL locker room for the first time since 2020.
Rivers signed with a desperate Indianapolis Colts squad this week. Though he hasn't been confirmed as their starter, things appear to be trending that way.
But he didn't exactly luck out matchup-wise, as the Colts (+14) are set to face the Seahawks' vaunted defence.
Seattle ranks No. 2 in points allowed, interceptions (15) and net yards per pass (5.0).
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Even if Rivers starts, there's no guarantee he'll play the whole game — or that he can convert in obvious passing situations.
The Seahawks have allowed just 158.5 passing yards per game over the past six weeks.
Robinson over 5.5 catches (+110): Robinson has one of the highest target shares in the NFL, and now he's facing arguably the league's worst pass defence.
- Washington has allowed a 102.6 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, per RotoWire. That ranks in the third percentile.
- Additionally, the Commanders' defence ranks 32nd in EPA per dropback and 30th in dropback success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
- Robinson has a 96th-percentile target share (28.0%). He's seen eight or more targets in six of his past seven games.
The 5-foot-8 slot receiver primarily sees underneath targets that have a higher percentage of being caught. Last week, he caught seven of eight targets ... for a paltry 34 yards.
Robinson is 8-5 vs. this milestone prop, which includes catching six passes for 55 yards against the Commanders in Week 1.
NFL prop bets made at 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.
