The Dallas Cowboys are on the rise and still well within the playoff hunt entering Thursday night's primetime matchup vs. the Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: I'm backing the Cowboys to win as underdogs for a third straight game as the Lions continue to sink into the soft middle of the NFL standings. On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins are worth fading in a cold, outdoor venue against a divisional foe.
Check out my top NFL Week 14 upset picks below.
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NFL Week 14 upset picks
Best bet: Jets moneyline (+123)
This pick is primarily about fading the Dolphins, which I'm happy to do in a cold-weather outdoor game.
Miami hasn't played a true road game since Week 8 (they played once on a neutral field in Spain). The Dolphins' results in true road games have been brutal this year:
- 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS)
- -39 point differential
In their most recent road matchup, the Dolphins blew out the Falcons, 34-10, in an indoor venue. They've lost all three outdoor road games this year, though.
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Additionally, I'm not the least bit impressed with Miami's Week 13 performance at home — coming off a bye — against a dreadful Saints team.
New Orleans, now 2-10, had the ball in the final minute with a chance to win. Miami failed to cash in for a touchdown on either of its red zone possessions and nearly blew a 16-point lead.
The Jets are far from a good team, but they're playing with a lot more of an edge these days. Since Week 8, the Jets are 5-0 ATS with three upset wins.
Back in September, New York lost a one-score game in Miami. I expect the Jets to return the favour on home turf.
Key stat: Miami is 0-3 with a -38 point differential in three outdoor road games this year.
NFL underdog prediction
Cowboys moneyline (+145): So... how 'bout them Cowboys?
Dallas just beat both of last year's Super Bowl teams in a span of five days to move to 6-5-1 on the year. Now the Cowboys hit the road to face the scuffling Lions.
Detroit is 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) since mid-October and has dropped two of its past three games as a home favourite.
Trade deadline acquisition Quinnen Williams bolsters my faith in Dallas to get this done on the road. In three weeks with Williams on their defensive line, the Cowboys rank inside the top 10 in EPA per rush and rushing success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Detroit has a top-five run offence in terms of total yards, yards per attempt and touchdowns. Quieting that part of its attack is crucial.
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Star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown left Detroit's Thanksgiving game early with an ankle injury. As of Monday afternoon, it's unclear if he'll be ready for this game.
Even if he is, I'm not sure the Lions' slumping offence can keep pace with the Cowboys, who are averaging 29.3 PPG (second in the NFL).
NFL upset picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, 2025.
