There are a lot of meaningful matchups in NFL Week 14, and I've got prop bets from two of them for Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: D'Andre Swift and the Chicago Bears can strengthen their grip on the NFC North with a win in Green Bay, and Swift should be heavily involved in the ground game. Earlier on, Jonathan Taylor is worth fading in a divisional clash against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Check out my top NFL Week 14 prop bets, featuring a prediction on Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins.
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NFL Week 14 prop bets
Best bet: Swift over 48.5 rushing yards (-117)
Some people think the Philadelphia Eagles have the best defence in the NFC (or at least one of the best defences). But Swift and the Bears ran all over them last week.
Swift rushed for 125 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. His teammate, Kyle Monangai, turned 22 carries into 130 yards and a score.
This has turned into a true timeshare backfield, which has its risks, but Swift seems to be the healthier of the two right now.
Monangai (ankle) didn't participate in Wednesday's practice, while Swift practiced in full.
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If Monangai is limited or misses another practice as we head toward the weekend, the carry total could tilt in Swift's favour. But either way, Swift has enough of a role in Chicago's offence that I don't expect his opportunities to disappear.
Look at Swift's rushing production since Week 6:
- 83.9 yards/game
- 5.6 yards/rush
- 80+ yards in 5 of 7
- 4 total TDs
Green Bay's run defence has been great this year, ranking in the top 10 in total yards, yards per rush and rushing TDs.
But the team lost its best interior lineman, Devonte Wyatt, to a season-ending ankle injury last week.
That absence, paired with Swift's stellar production for most of the season, makes this a smash play in my view.
Key stat: Swift cashed this bet in both matchups vs. the Packers last year, posting 136 total rushing yards in those games.
Best NFL picks
Taylor under 94.5 rushing yards (-113): The Indianapolis Colts will surely want to lean on their star tailback this weekend with first place in the AFC South up for grabs.
But I think the Jaguars have what it takes to slow Taylor down — as they've demonstrated in the past.
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- In four career matchups against the Jaguars in Jacksonville, Taylor has averaged just 43.0 yards per game.
- This under is 4-0 when Taylor faces the Jags on the road. Most recently, in October 2023, he rushed for 19 yards on eight carries.
Jacksonville's run defence has been legit this season, allowing the second-lowest success rate in the NFL (34.5%), per RBSDM.com.
Taylor has gone under 94.5 yards in three of his past four games.
Cousins over 0.5 interceptions (-117): I'm pleasantly surprised to be able to back this at a price close to even money.
Cousins will be at home, but I don't expect him to be anywhere close to comfortable against the ravenous Seattle Seahawks defence.
- Seattle has 13 interceptions this year, which is tied for second-most in the NFL.
- The Seahawks are allowing a 65.2 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, per RotoWire, which ranks in the 90th percentile.
- Last season, Cousins faced the Seahawks at home and threw two interceptions in 35 pass attempts (6.6 yards/attempt).
NFL prop bets made at 11:39 a.m. ET on Dec. 4, 2025.
