This week's NFL best bets feature one ATS pick, a player prop and two over/under predictions for Sunday.
The Week 14 narrative: Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills host Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in a game which should feature plenty of scoring. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns find themselves favoured for just the third time this year.
Check out our NFL Week 14 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prop bet on Travis Etienne Jr and a prediction for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints.
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NFL Week 14 best bets
These NFL Week 14 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Spencer Closs.
Saints/Buccaneers under 42.5 points: The Saints' offence is downright pitiful. New Orleans averages 15.2 points, which ranks third last in the NFL.
It doesn't matter who's starting at quarterback, either. The reigns have now been handed over to Tyler Shough, and he's led the offence to 17 points or fewer in all five of his starts.
That includes his first career start, which was against Tampa Bay. The Saints put up a measly three points in a 23-3 loss.
On the other side, the Buccaneers' offence is banged up. Bucky Irving is just one week removed from a lengthy injury recovery, and Mike Evans remains sidelined.
Since Week 7, Tampa has scored 19.0 points per game. That's over four points lower than its season-long average (23.3).
New Orleans provides such a low offensive floor that if Tampa were to score a lot, this game could still stay under.
But the wheels are starting to fall off, and I don't expect the Bucs to come out and produce fireworks.
This has all the makings of another sluggish game between two NFC South opponents at opposite ends of the standings.
-Closs
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Bengals vs. Bills over/under prediction
Bengals/Bills over 52.5 points (-110): This is a big number. In fact, it's the largest total of any game on Sunday's slate. But I'll happily take the over for a few reasons.
- Buffalo's offence comes alive at home: The Bills are averaging 32.5 PPG at home (23.7 on the road) and are 5-1 in Orchard Park this year.
- Burrow makes a big difference: Cincinnati is on an eight-game winning streak when Burrow plays, averaging 27.1 PPG in that span.
- Cincy's defence is historically bad: The Bengals allow the most points (31.2) and yards (410.0) per game, and rank last in RBSDM.com's EPA per play.
Allen and the Bills should put up a boatload of points on Sunday. But I trust Burrow and Co. to go blow-for-blow with their playoff lives on the line.
-Perri
Titans vs. Browns pick
Browns -4.5 (-109): I feel legitimately bad for Cam Ward heading into Sunday's matchup against Cleveland.
The Browns are a miserable 3-9, but they leave opponents bloodied and bruised. Myles Garrett has an NFL-leading 19 sacks, and his defence is allowing the second-fewest yards per game (271.3).
Most teams take the beating and still find a way to outscore Cleveland's horrible offence, but Tennessee isn't capable of putting up points.
Ward has been sacked more than anyone in the NFL (48), and the Titans are averaging the fewest points per game (14.2).
As long as Shedeur Sanders takes care of the football, the Browns should pick up win No. 4.
-Perri
NFL Week 14 best bets: Player props
Etienne to score (-108): Etienne is coming off a quiet week where he wasn't asked to do much in a three-score win against the Titans.
Before that, he had been on a nice month-long tear:
- Week 9: 115 scrimmage yards, zero TDs
- Week 10: 77 scrimmage yards, one TD
- Week 11: 73 scrimmage yards, two TDs
- Week 12: 106 scrimmage yards, one TD
Liam Coen loves to get the fifth-year back touches, and this week's huge matchup against the Indianapolis Colts should be no different.
-> Bet on Etienne vs. the Colts!
Indy has lost three of its last four games, and gave up 25 points in the outlier (an overtime win vs. Atlanta).
Jacksonville, meanwhile, has won four of its last five, scoring 29 points in the outlier. I like the Jags' chances of putting up a crooked number at home, and expect Etienne to factor in.
-Perri
NFL Week 14 best bets made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Dec. 3, 2025.
